Scientist - Post-processing of Rainfall Forecasts

About ECMWF

ECMWF is an inter-governmental organisation supported by 34 Member and Co-operating States. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. ECMWF carries out scientific and technical research directed to the improvement of its forecasts, collects and processes large amounts of observations, and manages a long-term archive of meteorological data. Satellite and in situ observations provide the information for up-to-date global analyses and climate reanalyses of the atmosphere, ocean and land surface.

For details, see www.ecmwf.int/.

Summary of the role

This position sits within the Forecast Performance Monitoring and Products team, within the Evaluation Section of the Forecast Department. ECMWF is currently exploring possible future ensemble configurations and needs to explore the impact on its products. The successful candidate will test and explore a system to deliver in real-time probabilistic forecast products for rainfall over Italy and Mediterranean regions. This will be done by blending ensembles from multiple resolutions, in an optimal way, incorporating a new downscaled output product (“ecPoint-rainfall”). The lower resolution ensemble input will be the ECMWF global ensemble and the higher resolution ensemble input a limited area ensemble prediction system, most likely the COSMO system (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling). At longer leads only the ECMWF post-processed output exists and a seamless transition between the two states needs to be explored.

This role is fully financed by the EU-funded MISTRAL project (Meteo Italian SupercompuTing poRtAL) (from call CEF-TC-2017-3). The overarching objective of this project component is to furnish societal benefits by improving the probabilistic prediction of rainfall conducive to flash floods, and by promulgating those predictions to users in real time. A key project resource is the CINECA supercomputing centre in Bologna and the developed software will be run on this platform.

Activities will have three main components: (i) research and development that optimises ecPoint-rainfall output for the meteorological needs of the target domain, (ii) optimisation of a blending methodology for output from ensemble systems with different resolutions, and (iii) operationalization of the production chain on the CINECA HPC facility, building on ECMWF experience in running post-processing software on its own HPC platform.

Some experience with meteorological post-processing techniques is essential for this role. Some knowledge of hydrological aspects, such as the dynamics of flash floods, would be advantageous. The post holder is likely to have to travel to Italy at regular intervals for project meetings.

Main duties and key responsibilities

• Porting the ecPoint-rainfall code to run in real-time on the CINECA platform, using input data from the ECMWF ensemble
• Developing further the existing calibration techniques within ecPoint, focussing on the meteo-geographical needs of the target domain (e.g. potential inclusion of orography-related aspects)
• Adapting pre-existing neighbourhood-type post-processing techniques to the rainfall output of the limited area ensemble
• Developing, testing and implementing a technique for blending the post-processed output from the two ensemble systems, in such a way as to optimise the skill of probabilistic rainfall forecasts in the target domain, with a particular focus on extreme events
• Collaborating on designing ways to disseminate the post-processed rainfall output, to include gridded datasets and innovative, user-oriented graphical formats
• Implementing the rainfall blending methodology on the CINECA platform to deliver probabilistic rainfall forecast products in real-time
• Fulfilling additional contractual requirements pertaining to the MISTRAL project itself, such as documentation and collaborative work

Personal attributes

• Strong interest in achieving user-relevant improvements in rainfall forecasts
• Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills, with a proactive approach
• Dedication and enthusiasm to work in a small team, and to promote international collaboration
• Ability to engage with staff from other related scientific backgrounds (e.g. hydrologists, statisticians, web developers, production analyst etc...)
• Excellent interpersonal and communication skills, listening to and respecting the views of others
• Ability to work under pressure

Qualifications and experience required

Education: A university degree, or equivalent, in a discipline closely related to meteorology,

physics or mathematics is required

Experience: Experience of numerical weather prediction is essential, and experience of

operational aspects would be helpful.

Experience of UNIX, of scripting for UNIX systems, and of writing clear and

resilient code for operational use is important.

Experience in parallelising code to run on supercomputer architecture would be

an advantage.

Experience with (i) ECMWF’s in-house Metview language, (ii) its MARS

archiving system, (iii) Matlab and (iv) Python would also be useful.

Knowledge and skills (including language):

Excellent meteorological knowledge, relating to rainfall-generation mechanisms

and the strengths and weaknesses of numerical models of different resolution

in the representation thereof.

Knowledge of different meteorological post-processing methods, particularly

those suited to rainfall. An understanding of neighbourhood post-processing

techniques would be a distinct advantage.

Experience in the use of different verification metrics would be helpful (those

pertaining to rainfall verification).

Knowledge of hydrology would also be useful, particularly of factors that

influence the risk of flash floods.

Candidates must be able to work effectively in English and interviews will be

conducted in English.

A good knowledge of one of the Centre’s other working languages (French or

German) would be an advantage.

Other information

Grade remuneration

The successful candidate will be recruited at the A2 grade, according to the scales of the Co-ordinated Organisations and the annual basic salary will be £58,238.40 net of tax. This position is assigned to the employment category STF-PS as defined in the Staff Regulations.

Candidates that may require further development to bring them up to meet the full requirements of this position, could be offered the position at the A1 grade, with an annual salary of £45,579.12 net of tax. This will be at the discretion of the organisation.

Full details of salary scales and allowances are available on the ECMWF website at www.ecmwf.int/en/about/jobs, including the Centre’s Staff Regulations regarding the terms and conditions of employment.

Starting date: 1 September 2018 or as soon as possible thereafter.

Length of contract: To 31 August 2020, subject to funding approval.

Location: The position will be based in the Reading area, in Berkshire, United Kingdom.

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