International Consultancy – Training on budget forecasting and estimation of expenditure ceilings for social sectors

The purpose of the consultancy is to conduct hands-on training on how to undertake efficient budget forecasts and determination of expenditure ceilings from MTEF, including development of a simple approach to allocate those ceilings across sectors. To this end, the consultancy will comprise the design of a simple macroeconomic and fiscal model for Lesotho, which is consistent with the country’s macroeconomic and fiscal framework.

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1. Background and Justification

UNICEF Lesotho has been supporting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to strengthen Public Finance for Children. One of the key interventions is to analyze sectoral budgets to see allocation and (actual) expenditure trends and provide evidence to policy makers to take informed budget allocation decisions. One of the findings of the budget analyses is weak credibility of the budget. MOF has indicated that this is due to weaknesses in budget estimation and setting up of expenditure ceiling for sectors. This indicates that skills to carry out reliable estimations and forecasts of public financial resources are essential to enable the Government to adjust programmed expenditures carefully when revenue collection or economic growth shocks arise. These skills are also central to well-informed sector prioritization and ringfencing specific priority expenditures.

In this regard, it is important to strengthen the capacity of line ministries and MOF in two main areas: (i) application of budget forecasts for budget preparation; and (ii) sector allocation of expenditure ceilings derived from the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). This TOR is prepared to engage an international individual contractor (consultant) to conduct these two critical tasks using Lesothos macroeconomic and fiscal framework.

2. Scope of Work

2.1  Goal and Objective:

The purpose of the consultancy is to conduct hands-on training on how to undertake efficient budget forecasts and determination of expenditure ceilings from MTEF, including the development of a simple approach to allocate those ceilings across sectors. To this end, the consultancy will comprise the design of a simple macroeconomic and fiscal model for Lesotho, which is consistent with the countrys macroeconomic and fiscal framework.

2.2  Provide details/reference to AWP areas covered:

The assignment of the consultancy will contribute to the achievement of Social Policy Output 3.2.

2.3  Activities and Tasks: The contractor will perform the following specific functions.

• Collect and review Lesotho macroeconomic and fiscal framework tools, including the MTEF.
• Propose a simplified and contextualized macroeconomic and fiscal model allowing budget (revenue and expenditure) projections and fiscal sustainability analyses for non-technical audiences.
• Develop a specific projection module enabling determination and allocation of expenditure ceilings across sectors and spending units, which can be replicated by MOF personnel in charge of Lesotho MTEF.
• Elaborate training materials to be utilized in hands-on training sessions for Government officials.
• Conduct 3-day training sessions to familiarize participants with key concepts and practical framework of macroeconomic and fiscal projections, as illustrated with the simplified macroeconomic and fiscal model that will be set up by the consultant jointly with MOF.

2.4  Work relationships:

The consultant will work under the supervision of the Social Policy Specialist (Public Finance) in UNICEF and work closely with relevant officials of MOF.

2.5 Activities /Outputs/Deliverables:

1. Reporting Format: In the beginning of the assignment, the consultant and the supervisor will agree on the specific deadlines for the deliverables based on inception report.

2.     Payment: The consultant will be paid based on the agreed delivery of deliverables and upon submission of a report following the reporting format above.

2.6  Payment schedule: Payment will be made upon the successful delivery of planned deliverables.

3. Desired profile

3.1  Education: Postgraduate degree in Statistics, Demographics, Population Studies, Economics or in any related Social Science fields;

3.2  Experience: Minimum of 10 years of work experience in public finance management, including conducting research and evaluation, writing proposals and reports, and conducting training and capacity building workshop sessions;

3.3  Competencies: Good communication, working with people, drive for results, and planning and organizing;

3.4  Language: Fluency in English.

4. Administrative issues

• The selected consultant will be governed by and subject to UNICEF General Terms;
• The consultant will work on their own computer(s) and use their own office resources and materials in the execution of this assignment;
• The consultant fees must be all-inclusive of all administrative costs;
• The consultant is expected to be available and fully in charge of delivering the deliverables during the contract period;
• As per UNICEF DFAM policy, payment is made against satisfactory completion of deliverables as per the approved work plan. No advance payment is allowed unless in exceptional circumstances against bank guarantee, subject to a maximum of 30 percent of the total contract value in cases where advance purchases, for example for supplies or travel, may be necessary.

5. Financial proposal

• The bidder must submit cost by deliverable in US dollar;
• Rates/Prices offered shall be all-inclusive and shall remain fixed for the entire period from the commencement of the contract;
• No Letter of Credit or Advance Payment will be given;
• The Financial Regulations and Rules of UNICEF preclude advance payments and payments by letter of credit, except in special circumstances. Such provision in a proposal will be prejudicial to its evaluation by UNICEF.

How to Apply

Qualified candidates are requested to complete an application including profile to the respective advertisement on  https://www.unicef.org/about/employ/?job=521745. Please, indicate your ability, availability and financial proposal/quote to complete the terms of reference above.

Rates must include all expenses related to the assignment (e.g., consultancy fee, travel/flights, and living allowance).

Applications submitted without a fee/rate will not be considered.

If you have not been contacted within 2 months of the closing date, please accept that your application was unsuccessful. Regret emails will be sent only to shortlisted/contacted candidates.

UNICEF is committed to diversity and inclusion within its workforce, and encourages all candidates, irrespective of gender, nationality, religious and ethnic backgrounds, including persons living with disabilities, to apply to become a part of the organization.

UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks, and will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles.

Remarks:

Mobility is a condition of international professional employment with UNICEF and an underlying premise of the international civil service.

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process.