National consultant to conduct the Analysis of Expenditure, Costing, Fiscal Space, and Financing for Social Protection Strategy.

Background

Lebanon is facing unprecedented economic and social crises considered as the harshest in its modern history. As a result of the chronic twin deficit in the fiscal balance and balance of payment over the past years, the economic crisis escalated to turn into a sovereign debt crisis, monetary and liquidity crisis, and a severe economic contraction. The situation was further aggravated with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic that speeded up the economic fallout.Lebanon lacks an integrated national social protection (SP) system to protect its poor and vulnerable population, and mostly characterized by vertical and horizontal fragmentation, excessive leakage andexclusion. As such, coverage and provision of protection to the poorest and most vulnerable remainsinadequate. The ongoing economic crisis, compounded by the COVID19 implications, clearlydemonstrated the fragility of the system and its inability to adequately respond to shocks. The shifttowards a Government-led national SP system with a clear policy, vision and direction will improvelonger-term programming, increase efficiency in budget allocation and bring more sustainableinvestment in the sector.The Government in Lebanon – supported by several UN agencies including UNICEF, ILO and UNDP – is inthe process of developing a national social protection strategy to embed the Government vision duringthe short, medium, and long term. The strategy will have six main pillars considered as the back of anysocial protection system, name: i) social assistance, ii) social insurance, ii) economic inclusion and labormarket activation, iv) financial access to health, v) financial access to education, and vi) social welfareservices. The strategy will have cross-cutting priorities including gender, disability, shock responsiveness,migration, lifecycle vulnerabilities as well as refugees.A key consideration in the strategy development is related to availability of financial resources toimplement priority programmes and activities, given the tight fiscal constraints, low confidence, andgloomy economic prospects.

Duties and Responsibilities

To support the development of the national strategy, UNDP seeks to recruit a financialeconomist/analyst who will contribute to the development of the financial and cost analysis of theproposed strategy. S/he will also work closely with a multi-disciplinary team of experts in finance,economics and social development to produce the final costing of the strategy. In specific, theconsultant will act as a key contributor to produce the following outputs:a) Budget and expenditure analysis: the consultant will contribute to the analysis of budgetexpenditure. Broadly, budget preparation process in Lebanon shall be described including thepreparation of the Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), the budget ceiling, theconstitutional and legal dates for preparing and processing the budget, in addition to any otherparameters featuring the process of budget preparation and execution. The consultant shall alsosupport in performing expenditure analysis covering selected line ministries, institutions, andagencies engaged in service delivery and financing of existing social protection interventions.This includes – not limited to – the Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry of Labor, the NationalSocial Security Fund, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education, other Line Ministriesand funds that provide any type of social assistance/social insurance benefits. Analysis includeshistorical trends, expenditure structure, major components, and delivery mechanisms(contracting, direct service delivery). Percentage of budget expenditure and GDP are keyindicators of the level of spending.b) Costing analysis programmes and activities: Once priority programmes of the social protectionstrategy are identified, the consultant will participate in developing the costing analysis,depending on the agreed costing approach. The consultant shall support in identifying thedifferent variables to be included in the costing including unit costs, assumptions, and keyparameters that may cost forecasts. The consultant shall develop costing templates usingspreadsheets and validate the parameters with the various partners including Governmentbodies, UN agencies, and other consultants working on the strategy development.c) Financial and economic analysis: One or two priority programmes will be selected to beassessed for value-for-money considerations and to establish a link between inputs, outputs,and outcomes in the results chain. This analysis will be used for advocacy purposes and toencourage decision-makers to look beyond the actual cost of the programmes and consider theresulting benefits. Any of the following approaches could be used depending on the relevance:Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA), Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Cost of No-Action Analysis (CAN).d) Financial gap: The consultant will support in identifying the fiscal implication of implementingthe strategy programmes upon the Government Budget.e) Fiscal space and financing analysis: The consultant shall contribute to the fiscal space analysispotentially generated to cover the strategy implementation. This will include analysis of theGovernment’s economic recovery plan, development assistance, deficit financing plans(borrowing), tax policies, and reallocation of existing resources (among and within sectors).For additional information, please refer to ANNEX I – Terms of Reference

Competencies

Functional Competencies:

• Proven experience in providing strategic financial and economic advisory services
• Excellent interpersonal, communication and presentation skills
• Fluency in oral and written English and Arabic
• Good analytical skills
• Highly motivated with good teamwork spirit.

Corporate Competencies:

• Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
• Advocates and promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UN;
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Treats all people fairly without favoritism;
• Knowledge of the UN preferable.

Required Skills and Experience

Academic Qualifications:

• Master’s in Economics or Statistics

Years of Experience:

• At least 3 years of relevant experience

Technical Experience:

• 3 years of experience in public finance and financial and economic costing analysis. Experience in social sector financing is a plus.

How to apply:The consultancy is open for all national consultants who meet the selection criteria and propose a competitive fee. Interested consultants are requested to apply only through this UNDP jobs portal.Submissions through any other media will not be considered.The application must include all of the following documents:1. P11,2. Annex 3 (Offerors Letter) and3. Methodology4. Financial proposal

All files shall be submitted in one single document and uploaded as word or PDF file to the UNDP job site.It has been observed that bidders don’t submit all requested documents and thus reducing their chance to be selected for a contract with UNDP. before you submit your offer please revise that the application is complete and comprises all four (4) documents.Incomplete applications will not be considered.