Consultant – Nowcasting and forecasting SDG related- health economic indicators, HGF/UHL

Purpose of consultancy

The purpose of this consultancy is to select and apply relevant modelling methodologies to nowcast and forecast SDG related health economic indicators with and without considering the impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios.

Background

The WHO Headquarter Health System Governance and Financing department is in charge of monitoring health economic indicators that are used to track progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and WHO's Global Programme of Work 13 2019-2023 (GPW 13). One of those indicators, SDG indicator 3.8.2, concerns the financial protection dimension of universal health coverage which is produced by the Economic Analysis and Evaluation team (EAE) in collaboration with WHO regional and country offices, national statistical offices, ministries of health and the World Bank. Nowcasting has been identified as feasible for SDG 3.8.2 indicator by the informal nowcasting network, set up by the UN chief statistician. For more information on this work please consult WHO reports, webpages and global databases on financial protection.

One or several consultants will be selected to identify and apply relevant modelling methodologies to nowcast and forecast indicators of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending with and without considering the impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios.

This work will contribute to strategic deliverable TP 2480 on Global data on financial protection, TP 2479 on alternative financial protection indicators for SDG 3.8.2 monitoring and TP2156 on the GPW13 triple billion dashboard.

Deliverables

The below deliverables may be split across consultants if several candidates are selected

Task 1 Review preliminary approaches to forecast catastrophic health spending without considering the impact of COVID-19 and based on that recommend improvements for nowcasting and forecasting (5 days)

• Deliverable 1: Technical note describing the initial analytical plan for nowcasting (2 pages max) and forecasting (2 pages max)

Task 2 Estimate the historical elasticity of financial protection indicators to out-of-pocket health spending as a share of final consumption expenditure of households (5 days for each type of financial protection indicator)

• Deliverable 2: Technical note describing the modelling approach used to estimate the elasticities, table with results including goodness of fit (5 pages max).
• Deliverable 3: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results.

Task 3 Estimate the historical elasticity of: (a) OOPs per capita to GDP per capita; (b) OOPs per capita to final consumption expenditure of households per capita and (c) final consumption expenditure of households per capita to GDP per capita (7 days)

• Deliverable 4: Technical note describing the modelling approach used to estimate the elasticities, table with results including goodness of fit (10 pages max).
• Deliverable 5: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results

Task 4 Identify variables to be used for nowcasting versus forecasting (3 days)

• Deliverable 6: Technical note describing the approach to select variables for nowcasting versus forecasting, table with results including goodness of fit if needed (5 pages max).
• Deliverable 7: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results

Task 5 Based on the outcomes of previous task, revise the initial analytical plan for nowcasting/forecasting if needed and apply the proposed modelling approaches to produce global, regional and country projected values. Assess the performance of the modelling approaches. (10 days)

• Deliverable 8: Technical note describing the final approach to nowcast and forecast, table with results including goodness of fit (10 pages max).
• Deliverable 9: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results

Task 6 Apply different scenarios to consider the impact of COVID-19. (5 days)

• Deliverable 10: Technical note describing the scenarios, table with results for nowcasting and forecasting (5 pages max).
• Deliverable 11: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results

Task 7 Review the current approaches to produce global and regional estimates of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending for specific reference years and propose any revision needed to align better with the proposed nowcasting/forecasting approaches. Apply the proposed approaches (7 days)

• Deliverable 12: Technical note explaining proposed revisions to current approaches, table with results (5 pages max).
• Deliverable 13: STATA or R codes used to perform the analysis along with the clean dataset to easily replicate the results

Qualifications, experience, skills and languages

Educational Qualifications:

Essential:

Advanced university degree in econometrics, economics, mathematical economics and Econometrics, health economics, statistics.

Experience

Essential:

Over 10 years of experience in an academic or professional setting in a position focused on quantitative modelling

Desirable:

• Demonstrated experience in nowcasting or forecasting economic or health economic indicators.
• Experience in collaborating or working for other UN agencies or multilateral banks or international financial institutions.

Skills/Knowledge:

Excellent knowledge of STATA or R

Languages required:

Essential:

Expert knowledge of English

Desirable:

Intermediate knowledge of other official WHO languages

Location

Off-site – Home based
Consultant must have access to a file hosting service with a storage capacity exceeding 2MB.

Travel

This assignment does not require any travel

Remuneration and budget (travel costs are excluded):

Remuneration:

Band level C - USD 500 – 625 per day / USD 10,000 - 12,500 per month depending upon consultants’ qualification and years of relevant experience

Living expenses (A living expense is payable to on-site consultants who are internationally recruited):

N/A

Expected duration of contract:

Duration varies from one month to 50 days (cannot exceed 60 days)

Additional Information

• This vacancy notice may be used to identify candidates for other similar consultancies at the same level.
• Only candidates under serious consideration will be contacted.
• A written test may be used as a form of screening.
• If your candidature is retained for interview, you will be required to provide, in advance, a scanned copy of the degree(s)/diploma(s)/certificate(s) required for this position. WHO only considers higher educational qualifications obtained from an institution accredited/recognized in the World Higher Education Database (WHED), a list updated by the International Association of Universities (IAU)/United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The list can be accessed through the link: http://www.whed.net/. Some professional certificates may not appear in the WHED and will require individual review.
• For information on WHO's operations please visit: http://www.who.int.
• WHO is committed to workforce diversity.
• WHO has a smoke-free environment and does not recruit smokers or users of any form of tobacco.
• Applications from women and from nationals of non and underrepresented Member States are particularly encouraged.
• WHO prides itself on a workforce that adheres to the highest ethical and professional standards and that is committed to put the WHO Values Charter into practice.
• WHO has zero tolerance towards sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA), sexual harassment and other types of abusive conduct (i.e., discrimination, abuse of authority and harassment). All members of the WHO workforce have a role to play in promoting a safe and respectful workplace and should report to WHO any actual or suspected cases of SEA, sexual harassment and other types of abusive conduct. To ensure that individuals with a substantiated history of SEA, sexual harassment or other types of abusive conduct are not hired by the Organization, WHO will conduct a background verification of final candidates.
• Consultants shall perform the work as independent contractors in a personal capacity, and not as a representative of any entity or authority. The execution of the work under a consultant contract does not create an employer/employee relationship between WHO and the Consultant.
• WHO shall have no responsibility whatsoever for any taxes, duties, social security contributions or other contributions payable by the Consultant. The Consultant shall be solely responsible for withholding and paying any taxes, duties, social security contributions and any other contributions which are applicable to the Consultant in in each location/jurisdiction in which the work hereunder is performed, and the Consultant shall not be entitled to any reimbursement thereof by WHO.
• Consultants working in Switzerland must register with the applicable Swiss cantonal tax authorities and social security authorities, within the prescribed timeframes (Guidelines issued by the Swiss Mission are available at: https://www.eda.admin.ch/missions/mission-onu-geneve/en/home/manual-regime-privileges-and-immunities/introduction/Manuel-personnes-sans-privileges-et-immunites-carte-H/Non fonctionnaires et stagiaires.html