Senior Economist

Background

Georgia’s economy expanded rapidly during the pre-COVID period, growing at a robust annual average rate of 5% from 2005 to 2019. Rapid growth contributed to the halving of the national poverty rate between 2007 and 2019. Responsible macro policies, intensifying global integration, sound public investments, an attractive business environment, improving governance, and rising public spending underpinned the progress.

However, years of sustained growth had a limited impact on quality job creation, and many Georgians continue to rely on low-productivity employment, especially in agriculture and the informal sector. Export volumes have increased but exports remain unsophisticated, and firms face low growth and survival rates. These outcomes indicate an incomplete structural transformation and an economic divide among regions.

The COVID-19 pandemic reversed some of Georgia’s gains. After the country achieved early success in containing the spread of the disease, infections surged in late 2020, and by the summer of 2021 Georgia had one of the world’s highest infection rates per capita. Economic output fell, contracting by 6.2 percent in 2020, as mobility restrictions were implemented, and tourist arrivals collapsed. Driven by rising global food and oil prices and pass-through from the earlier depreciation of the Lari, the inflation rate spiked to 13.9 in 2021, its highest level in over 10 years. In response, the central bank has increased its policy rate by a cumulative 200 basis points since March 2021 to 10%.

Despite a robust fiscal response, estimated at 7.5 percent of GDP, close to the regional average for Europe and Central Asia, the poverty rate at the international upper-middle-income poverty line ($5.50 per capita per day) rose from 42 percent in 2019 to an estimated 46.6 percent in 2020.

Georgia has a shared consensus on national priorities, including participation in Euro-Atlantic integration, more efficient government, stronger growth, and a better functioning welfare state. This paved the way for the signing of an Association Agreement with the European Union (EU) in 2016, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area preferential trade regime. Free trade agreements with major trade partners, such as the EU and China, position Georgia well to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

The war in Ukraine will have a negative effect on global and regional economies. The impact on Georgian economy can be channelled through global trends, decreasing trade operations with Ukraine and Russia coupled  with expected reduction of remittances and possible reduction of tourists. Distorted trade, inflow of remittances, impact on import prices and consequently Balance of Payment, tourists’ inflow, global prices on oil, exchange rate volatility will affect the Georgian economy and several groups of producers, their suppliers’ employees causing deterioration of living standards, growing poverty, vulnerability and unequally.

UNDP plans to recruit Senior Economist for applied economic and econometric research and and modelling for assessing wider impact of socio-economic processes and model different policies and options impacts. 

Duties and Responsibilities

The overall responsibility of the Senior Economist is to perform independent research and plan, organise and ensure quality of different applied analytical work with the aim of supporting formulation of new economic development policies, strategies and instruments considering their socio, human development and sustainable development dimensions for promotion of SDGs and Agenda 2030.

The Senior Economist will provide advice to senior management to strengthen relevant linkages to UNDP programmes, support the Government’s policy and build strategic partnerships of UNDP with IFIs. 

The Senior Economist will be accountable to UNDP Resident Representative and closely work with UNDP Georgia Country Office and projects’ staff, ad consultants who will provide guidance and support in performing the duties listed below. 

The Senior Economist will be responsible to:

1. Deliver individual research applying different quantitative methods, surveys, studies, economic modeling, regression analysis and others for analyzing complex topics with consideration of social, human development, sustainable development and other dimensions and consequences.
2. Assess different policy options and other solutions, as well as scenarios (including the ones related to different shocks) using quantitative methods for modeling and measuring impact, including impact on poverty and environment.
3. Plan, organize and check quality of different analytical work performed by UNDP contractors
4. Develop reports with the findings of the performed research applying different visualization methods and presenting them to UNDP, GoG, donors and IFIs.
5. Support UNDP in formulation of new strategies, programmatic areas, and programmatic linkages.
6. Advocate for and represent UNDP in his/her area of expertise as requested by UNDP.
7. Perform other relevant tasks as requested by UNDP.

UNDP Country office, projects’ staff and consultants will provide support related to data collection, processing, communication with stakeholders and other deemed necessary.

Deliverables and payment modality:

4% of the consultancy fee - 1 month after signing the contract: 

1. Paper with analysis of planned and started national analytical and research work of IFIs and Government, analytical instruments for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, social and poverty trends within GoG and National Bank of Georgia.

2. Presentation for UNDP management describing the main findings, identified gaps in the view of UNDP and GoG analytical and research needs for promoting SDG agenda and effective development mechanisms for sustainable and inclusive development targeting the most vulnerable population.        

4% of the consultancy fee - 2 months after signing the contract:

3. Work plan of research topics and list of knowledge products on development challenges, indication of timeline, description of methodologies, data and other resources for analytical work and research to be performed for UNDP.

4% of the consultancy fee - 3 months after signing the contract:

4. Inputs for Knowledge product #1 for the identified topic win the work plan on development challenges.

5. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #1.  

4% of the consultancy fee - 4 months after signing the contract:

6. Knowledge product #1.          

4% of the consultancy fee - 5 months after signing the contract:

7. Inputs for Knowledge product #2 for the identified topic within the work plan.

8. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #2. 

4% of the consultancy fee - 6 months after signing the contract:

9. Knowledge product #2            

5% of the consultancy fee - 7 months after signing the contract:

10. Inputs for Knowledge product #3 for the identified topic within the work plan.

11. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #3.

4% of the consultancy fee - 8 months after signing the contract:

12. Knowledge product #3          

4% of the consultancy fee - 9 months after signing the contract:

13. Inputs for Knowledge product #4 for the identified topic within the work plan.

14. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #4. 

5% of the consultancy fee - 10 months after signing the contract:

15. Knowledge product #4          

4% of the consultancy fee – 11 months after signing the contract:

16. Inputs for Knowledge product #5 for the identified topic within the work plan.

17. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #5. 

4% of the consultancy fee - 12 months after signing the contract:

18. Knowledge product #5.        

4% of the consultancy fee - 13 months after signing the contract:

19. Inputs for Knowledge product #6 for the identified topic within the work plan.

20. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #6. 

5% of the consultancy fee - 14 months after signing the contract:

21. Knowledge product #6.        

4% of the consultancy fee - 15 months after signing the contract:

22. Inputs for Knowledge product #7 for the identified topic within the work plan.

23. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #7. 

4% of the consultancy fee - 16 months after signing the contract:

24. Knowledge product #7.        

5% of the consultancy fee - 17 months after signing the contract:

25. Inputs for Knowledge product #8 for the identified topic within the work plan.

26. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #8. 

4% of the consultancy fee - 18 months after signing the contract:

27. Knowledge product #8.        

4% of the consultancy fee - 19 months after signing the contract:

28. Inputs for Knowledge product #9 for the identified topic within the work plan.

29. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #9. 

4% of the consultancy fee - 20 months after signing the contract:

30. Knowledge product #9.        

4% of the consultancy fee - 21 months after signing the contract:

31. Inputs for Knowledge product #10 for the identified topic within the work plan.

32. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #10.             

4% of the consultancy fee - 22 months after signing the contract:

33. Knowledge product #10

4% of the consultancy fee - 23 months after signing the contract:

34. Inputs for Knowledge product #11 for the identified topic within the work plan.

35. Report describing the work performed related to individual tasks of UNDP contractors’ research quality insurance and darting the inputs for the Knowledge product #11.

4% of the consultancy fee - 24 months after signing the contract:

36. Knowledge product #11.

Competencies

Corporate competencies:

• Demonstrates integrity by modelling the UN’s values and ethical standards.
• Understanding of the mandate and the role of UNDP would be an asset.
• Promotes the vision, mission and strategic goals of UNDP.

• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.
• Treats all people fairly without favouritism

Functional competencies:

• Strong communication and analytical skills
• Demonstrated skills in drafting reports
• Ability to work under pressure with several tasks and various deadlines
• Actively generates creative, practical approaches and solutions to overcome challenging situations
• Excellent writing, presentation/public speaking skills
• A pro-active approach to problem-solving
• Computer literacy

Leadership and Self-Management skills:

• Builds strong relationships with the working group and with the project partners; focuses on impact and results for the project partners and responds positively to feedback
• Cooperates with working group effectively and demonstrates strong conflict resolution skills
• Consistently approaches work with energy, positivity and a constructive attitude
• Demonstrates strong influencing and facilitation skills
• Remains calm, in control and good humoured under pressure
• Demonstrates openness to change, new ideas and ability to manage ambiguity
• Demonstrates strong oral and written communication skills
• Demonstrates ability to transfer knowledge and competencies
• Is able to work independently and hurdle competing priorities.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• At least Master’s degree in Economics, Statistics, development, policy analysis or related fields( Minimum Requirement): – 8 points. PhD Degree 10 points .

Experience:

• At least 10 years of experience in macro-economic and/or economic development related topics quantitative analysis and/or research ( Minimum Requirement) – 10 points. International experience -additional 2 points.

• Hands on experience of at least 5 cases of extensive in use of using quantitative methods of research, as an example STATA, regressions, building models etc  ( Minimum Requirement)  – 10 points. More than 5 cases – additional 2 points.

• Experience of elaborating papers, quality control of studies using quantitative methods of research is an asset - 6 points.

Language requirement: 

• Proficiency in both spoken and written English.

Evaluation :

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the Cumulative analysis. Individual consultants will be evaluated against combination of technical and financial criteria. Technical evaluation stage encompasses desk review and interview of applications. Experts not meeting any of minimum technical qualification requirements will be automatically excluded from the list of candidates for further technical evaluation.

Maximum obtainable score is 100, out of which the total score for technical criteria equals to 70 points (70%) and for financial criteria 30 (30%). Technical criteria composed of desk review (40 points) written test (15 points) and interview (15 points). Offerors who pass 70% of maximum obtainable scores of the desk review (i.e., 40 x 70% = 28 points because of a desk review of applications will be invited for the written test and interviews. Those offerors who pass 70% of maximum obtainable scores for written tests and interviews of (i.e., 30x 70% = 21 points) will be considered as short-listed offerors and requested to provide financial proposals. 

Financial Proposal

The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount, and payment terms around specific and measurable (qualitative and quantitative) deliverables (i.e. whether payments fall in installments or upon completion of the entire contract). Payments are based upon output, i.e. upon delivery of the services specified in the ToR.  In order to assist the requesting unit in the comparison of financial proposals, the financial proposal will include a breakdown of this lump sum amount. Maximum 30 points will be assigned to the lowest price offer. All other price offers will be scored using the formula (inverse proportion):  Financial score X = 30* the lowest price offer/suggested price offer. All envisaged travel costs must be included in the financial proposal as well.