Economic Modelling Specialist for the GCF Readiness Project: Resilient Recovery Rapid Readiness Support in Honduras

Result of Service

The objective of the consultancy is to assist in the development of the resilient recovery strategy and its investment plan ready to be approved and adopted by the national authorities. For this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis will build the technical evidence and will quantify the cost and the benefits of the policies that will ultimately aid decision-makers in formulating and adopting the resilient recovery strategy, taking into consideration the COVID-19 consequences and the impacts of the Eta and Iota hurricanes. The resilient recovery strategy will include an investment plan with a number of prioritized measures, previously consulted with relevant stakeholders and policy decision-makers. The consultant will undertake the following activities:
Development of Deliverable 1: Technical report describing the modeling methodology and scenario simulations
- Prepare information and materials to undertake stakeholder interviews (2 workshops), with the aid of the PCU, under the guidance of Honduras NDA and UNEP to: i) define a preliminary list of measures to be included into the model and in consequence to be analysed; ii) to validate the initial assumptions and adjustments to the model; and iii) to validate which are the opportunities for aligning the country’s climate change agenda with the economic recovery agenda post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota hurricanes
- Adjust and equip a model with several strategies (e.g., policy interventions, or specific infrastructure investments) and carry out an integrated assessment of the outcomes across sectors, economic actors, dimensions of development.
- Analyze the forecast’s impact on GDP and several other indicators (such as job creation, and other indicators already validated in previous activities) that will aid to recovery measures.
- Create simulations, via the review and validation of model results, for all scenarios considered. This includes the definition of policy interventions and related timeline and ambition.
- Select and present to the PSC, the prioritized list of measures (policy and investment outcomes) for an economic recovery in Honduras. The outcomes, presented in robust analysis, will show the need to promote the implementation of several programmes/projects to ensure a resilient recovery.
- Prioritize actions that are more beneficial to formulate pre-factibility projects that advance the implementation of the intervention
- Design a power point presentation of the modelling findings.
- Present the findings (report and PowerPoint) to technical specialists and high-level officials under the PSC.
Development of Deliverable 2: Final report based on the economic modelling used to informed the development of the Resilient Recovery Strategy
- Present the overall results and the cost benefit analysis of the prioritized policies. This will consider a robust financial and economic analysis as well as the expected social, economic, and environmental outcomes of the interventions.
- Collaborate with sectoral experts in the development of pre-feasibility assessments.
- Write the assessment report, including a high-level policy brief, providing an interpretation of the results of the model, in the context of the country.
- Test the various “what if” scenarios of the prioritized list of measures (policy and investment outcomes)
- Develop an investment plan considering the availability of financial resources (national & international, public/private) as well as the expected social economic, and environmental outcomes of interventions based on a clear timeline and stakeholder roles
- Integrate the feedback received from different stakeholders.
- Design a power point presentation of the final findings.
- Present the final findings (report and PowerPoint) to technical specialists and high-level officials under the PSC.

Outputs
Development of Activity 1
Development of Activity 2

Deliverables
Product No. 1: Technical report describing the modeling methodology and scenario simulations
Product No. 2: Investment Plan and Cost-Benefit Analysis based on the economic modelling used to informed the development of the Resilient Recovery Strategy

Work Location

Home-based

Expected duration

4 months

Duties and Responsibilities

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.

The UNEP Latin America and the Caribbean Office (LACO), located in Panama City, works closely with the 33 countries of the region and its activities are integrated into the Medium-Term Strategy and the Programme of Work approved by the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA).

During the XXII Meeting of the Forum of Ministers of Environment of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) (Barbados, February 2021), the Ministers stressed the need to integrate ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation measures at the heart of the region’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recovery strategies, recognizing that an economic recovery aligned with the Paris Agreement would enable countries to build back better, with low-emissions and climate-resilient investments driving economic growth, job creation, and significant environmental and social co-benefits. Therefore, the Ministers requested UNEP, as Secretariat of the Forum, to support LAC countries in developing COVID-19 recovery response measures aligned with low-emission and climate-resilient economies that leave no one behind. To support this formal request, UNEP designed the “Programme to support the post-COVID-19 economic recovery in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean”.
For Honduras, 2020 was a very difficult year not only for the COVID-19 pandemic that left many people jobless but also because of the tropical storm ETA (5 November 2020) and hurricane Iota (18 November 2020). Due to the impact of the pandemic and the natural disasters, the country's landscape is extremely complicated, and it is experiencing an unprecedented setback in the economy, employment, and public finances. Therefore, the National Designated Authority (NDA) of the government of Honduras requested the Green Climate Fund (GCF) assistance to develop the Resilient Recovery Readiness project with the objective of supporting the national policy and strategy on reconstruction, including the translation of these efforts into concrete mid- to long-term investment strategies.

The GCF Readiness project will aid Honduras NDA to:
- Identify, validate, and prioritize actions in a participatory and transparent process that supports the development of a concrete investment strategy and plan.
- Select prioritized interventions, conduct pre-feasibility assessments, and integrate them into concept notes for GCF finance. This would then facilitate concrete investments that materialize the sustainable transformation of the economy.
- Assist in the development of the Resilient Recovery Strategy and investment plan ready to be adopted by country authorities.
A Technical Team (TT) will be established, under the supervision of the Programme Management Officer on Sustainable finance, in close coordination with the Project Coordination Unit (PCU), for the conceptual as well as technical development of deliverables of the project. The TT will be responsible for the overall technical implementation of the project. The TT will be formed by individual consultants under guidance of the PCU, UNEP and the Honduras NDA and the Project Steering Committee (PSC).

The UNEP’s Latin America and the Caribbean Office is looking for an Economy Modelling Specialist for the GCF Readiness Project: Resilient Recovery Rapid Readiness Support in Honduras. She/he will develop a sector-based approach to quantify and showcase the social, environmental, and economic benefits of a post-COVID-19 resilient recovery. The Specialist will: i) define the best available economy modelling tools to inform Honduras’s policymakers in the development of the National Resilient Recovery Strategy; ii) develop the model including policy measures, and economic scenarios (GDP, employment, policy benefits, etc.) iii) validate the priority measures (policy interventions and economic investments) with relevant stakeholders; and iv) develop the resilient recovery strategy sectorial scenarios and its investment plan, with specific financial resources, timeline, and roles to be implemented.

The Specialist who will be part of the TT will work in close collaboration with the Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment (SERNA) of Honduras and other national consultants and government and non-governmental counterparts to fully incorporate the country’s vision and development plan on resilient recovery. The incumbent will be supervised by the Programme Management Officer on Sustainable Finance. The position is home-based.

Qualifications/special skills

ACADEMIC:
- Bachelor’s degree in a quantitative field such as mathematics, statistics, engineering, physics, economics, computer science or a related field is required.
- Master's degree (or equivalent degree/experience) in a quantitative field such as mathematics, statistics, engineering, physics, economics, computer science or a related field is required.

PROFESSIONAL:
- At least 7 years working experience in research or analysis and formulation of economic and environmental strategies and policies is required.
- Experience with national planning is desired.
- Experience with integrating knowledge across different economic sector for climate mitigation and adaptation is desired.
- Knowledge of different modelling techniques is desired.
- Experience working with recovery packages is desired.
- Experience working with Latin American and Caribbean countries is desired.
- Experience on economy assessments is desired.
- Experience on supporting policy formulation is desired.
- Ability to deliver at speed and to adapt to client / country needs.
- Demonstrates strong quantitative skills and the ability to carry out high quality net-zero and climate resilient economy research, including statistical analysis.
- Possesses proven ability to analyse a net-zero and climate resilient economy topics from a national/regional/global perspective, with the ability to offer practical policy advice on issues based on local realities.
- Proven record as lead author, researcher, reviewer and technical coordinator of international publications and reports in climate change mitigation issues regarding agriculture, energy and/or transport sectors is desirable.

LANGUAGE:
- Fluent in Spanish is required
- Fluent in English is desirable.

SPECIAL KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS:
- Strong analytical skills with high attention to detail and accuracy, including strategically analysing data; synthesizing findings from diverse materials and sources, diagnosing opportunities, and providing interventions is required.
- Knowledge and familiarity with general equilibrium and/or system dynamics models is highly valuable.
- Knowledge and familiarity with hydrological models are desirable.
- Excellent verbal, written, and interpersonal communication skills is required.
- Ability to present complex issues in simple and clear manner is required.
- Ability to communicate trends and impacts to high-level and mid-senior level management is required.
- Demonstrates integrity and ethical standards is required.
- Ability to work under pressure and deliver high quality results on time is required.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.