Research Consultant(s) to Conduct Project Endline Assessment

Job Description

Position Title: Research Consultant / Team of Research Consultants to Conduct Project Endline Assessment 
Duty Station: Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (remote)
Type of Appointment: Consultancy, Category B, deliverables-based
Duration: December 2025 – February 2026 
Closing Date: 07 December 2025, 06:00 pm Bishkek time

These Terms of Reference (ToR) define the scope, objectives, methodology, and deliverables for the Endline Assessment of the Safe Migration of Seasonal Workers from Central Asia to the UK project, implemented by IOM with support from the UK Integrated Security Fund (ISF) between April 2024 and March 2026.

The endline assessment will measure changes against the reconstructed baseline and assess the extent to which intended results—including higher-level outcomes and impact areas—have been achieved. The assessment will also analyse enabling and constraining factors, emerging best practices, and lessons learned to generate actionable evidence for strengthening future programming in safe migration and reintegration.
 

Background and Context 

Labour migration is a key contributor to economic resilience, poverty reduction, and social mobility in Central Asia. Workers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan heavily rely on overseas employment to support household well-being. Geopolitical shifts—including the Russia–Ukraine conflict and tightening migration regulations in Russia—have accelerated the diversification of migration routes, with the UK Seasonal Worker Scheme (SWS) emerging as a major alternative.

The SWS offers seasonal agricultural work opportunities in the UK. Although its primary purpose is to fill UK labour shortages, participation in the scheme has also resulted in a number of observed outcomes for Central Asian workers, such as increased earnings, enhanced skills, and exposure to international work practices. These effects are by-products of participation rather than stated aims of the scheme.

Recent recruitment trends under the SWS highlight a marked demographic shift away from Eastern Europe and South Asia toward Central Asia as a primary source region. 

Table 1. Number of Seasonal Workers by Region (2019–2024)

Source: DEFRA Seasonal Worker Surveys (2021–2024)

Participation in the SWS has grown dramatically, with 27,759 Central Asian workers taking part in 2024 — representing 62% of the global annual quota (45,000 visas) and 78% of all SWS visas issued globally. 

Table 2. Number of SWS Visas Issued to Central Asian Nationals (2019–2024)

Despite increased participation, significant challenges persist: inconsistent access to accurate information, widespread recruitment scams, gender-specific vulnerabilities, and weak systems for integrating migration earnings into long-term livelihood gains. Structural gaps in migration governance and worker protection also limit sustainable outcomes.

About the Project

To address these challenges, International Organization for Migration (IOM) is implementing a multi-country initiative supporting safe, orderly, and regular migration from Central Asia to the UK. The project aims to make migration from Central Asia to the United Kingdom under the Seasonal Worker Scheme (SWS) safer, more empowering, and more beneficial for migrants and their families. It does so by ensuring that migrants receive accurate and timely information, high-quality pre-departure orientation (PDO) and rights-based awareness sessions, as well as continuous support through a safe migration hotline and targeted information campaigns.

The project also strengthens the capacity of government partners in Central Asia, as well as knowledge of UK-based stakeholders in characteristics of workers from Central Asia, to ultimately better protect migrant rights and deliver more effective services. By improving access to reliable information, reducing risks of fraud and exploitation, addressing gender-specific vulnerabilities, and supporting sustainable reintegration through financial literacy training, seed grants, and entrepreneurship support, the project enables migrants to have positive and safe migration experiences and to convert their earnings into long-term livelihood improvements.

Finally, the project contributes to the development and institutionalization of national policies, systems, and frameworks that support safe, regular, and sustainable migration pathways beyond the project’s duration.

Purpose and Objectives of the Endline Assessment

The purpose of this endline assessment is to assess whether the project reached intended results and the extent to which these interventions have contributed to safer migration experiences, improved socio-economic outcomes, and strengthened policy systems in Central Asia. 

The endline assessment will use a mixed-methods approach to explore how and why change has occurred, identify enabling and constraining factors, and generate actionable evidence to strengthen future migration programming and inform bilateral cooperation between Central Asian governments and the United Kingdom; endline findings are also expected to provide a strong-evidence base for potential future programming (serve as baseline data) in this thematic area by IOM and other actors. The findings will be shared with all partners, including governments, donors, and other stakeholders. Any sensitive project findings and recommendations will be provided to the IOM and ISF (UK donor) in a separate Annex.

Specific Objectives

• Assess if/how project interventions contributed to safer and more positive migration experiences (Impact Indicator 1).
• Measure if/how SWS participation influenced income, savings, investment, and long-term livelihoods (Impact Indicator 2).
• Assess the impact of financial/business literacy trainings, consultations, and seed grants on grant recipients.
• Analyse the project’s contribution to policies, institutional frameworks, and national programmes supporting safe migration and reintegration (Impact Indicator 3).
• Identify factors that enabled or hindered the achievement of these results.
• Provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen future programming, policies, and cooperation.

Responsibilities

Scope of Work 

The endline assessment will be conducted across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (December 2025—February 2026). It will cover:

Evaluation Population

The evaluation will cover all Central Asian workers who participated in the SWS during the project period—not only IOM beneficiaries—to assess overall progress and IOM’s specific contribution. Contact information will be sourced from Government partners in each country, IOM databases, and possibly SWS operators (where govts are not involved in recruitment of workers). 

Methodology and Approach 

The endline assessment will use a mixed-methods approach to collect and analyse both quantitative and qualitative data. This will allow for a deeper understanding of the project’s results and provide a comprehensive picture of how and why change occurred. Methodological elements outlined below will guide the final methodology, which the selected consultant may refine during the inception phase in consultation with IOM and FCDO.

The evaluation will examine the broader context in which Central Asian migrants participate in the UK Seasonal Worker Scheme (SWS) — including UK regulations, scheme operator practices, and working and living conditions — to understand the environment in which IOM operates and delivers its interventions. This contextual review will inform the interpretation of findings; however, the evaluation will not assess or judge the SWS itself. The assessment will focus only on outcomes and changes that can reasonably be linked to IOM-supported activities.

a. Quantitative Component (a structured survey)

The quantitative component will measure the extent to which migrants report safe and positive migration experiences and improved socio-economic outcomes associated with participation in SWS. 

The sampling frame includes all Central Asian nationals who participated in the SWS during the 2024–2025 seasons (~27,759 individuals). A stratified random sample will be drawn proportionally to the number of migrants from each participating country, ensuring the sample accurately reflects the actual distribution of migrants across key demographic and employment categories (e.g., age, type of employer, recruitment channel, support received).

Note: Access to returned migrants may be uneven, especially for individuals no longer in contact with Scheme Operators or partners. Similarly, identifying a suitable comparison group (SWS-eligible individuals who did not participate in project activities) may not always be feasible. As a result, a fully representative stratified sample may not be achievable. To manage these limitations, the consultant(s) will use flexible and pragmatic sampling methods, such as: using all available contact lists from Scheme Operators, IOM, and partners; applying snowball or respondent-driven sampling where needed; identifying realistic comparison groups where possible; recording any deviations from the sampling plan and assessing their implications. All limitations and their potential effects on findings will be transparently documented in the final evaluation report.

The target sample size is 380–420 respondents (a 5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level for the overall sample), with at least 80 respondents per country (a margin of error in the range of ±10–11%) to allow for comparisons between countries and between migrants who received IOM support and those who did not.

From the sampling frame, two analytic groups will be distinguished:
 (1) Treatment group – Central Asian nationals who participated in clearly defined, project-specific IOM interventions, such as:

• financial or business literacy trainings;
• seed-grant–related business support;
• project-developed PDO, GBV/PSEA, or cultural awareness sessions (not general awareness campaigns). 

A clear distinction between project interventions and broader national awareness activities will be maintained in the sampling and in all data-collection tools.

(2) Control group – migrants who did not participate in any IOM project-specific activities but did participate in the SWS. These respondents serve as the comparison group for assessing the added value of project interventions. 

Key survey topics include:
 • Access to information and pre-departure preparation
 • Working and living conditions, rights awareness, and grievance access
 • Safety, discrimination, and exploitation experiences
 • Income, savings, investment, and reintegration outcomes
 • Use and perceived value of IOM and government support services

The exact sample size and stratification are expected to be included in the technical proposals and will be finalized during the inception phase based on power calculations, feasibility, and available contact lists.

b. Qualitative Component

The qualitative part will explore deeper reasons behind the observed changes and provide context for the quantitative findings. The qualitative component will follow a simple, structured flow. First, views will be gathered from key stakeholder groups – returning migrants, Scheme Operators, UK farms and supervisors, recruitment agencies, government representatives, and worker-support organisations – mainly through FGDs with migrants and KIIs with institutional actors. Collected data will be organised under core themes linked to the evaluation questions: (i) access to information and recruitment; (ii) workplace experiences, well-being, and grievance mechanisms; (iii) reintegration, household economic resilience, and mobility; and (iv) perceived usefulness of project-supported materials (e.g. cultural awareness tools, GBV/PSEA guidance, PDO elements).

The evaluation team will then synthesise these insights and triangulate them with survey results to explain why and how changes occurred, clarify differences between groups, and identify contextual factors that shaped outcomes. The final qualitative synthesis will directly inform evaluation judgements, lessons learned, and recommendations for future programming and policy.

Data collection methods:

• Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): at least two per country (8 total) with homogenous groups (e.g., migrants, returnees), and one FGD with women per country (at least in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) 
• Key Informant Interviews (KIIs): overall 15–20 interviews across all four countries with government officials, scheme operators, civil society, recruiters, and migrant representatives
• Separate internal interviews with IOM country teams, including the UK, and regional project team for triangulation, understanding implementation process, and validating findings from external stakeholders and beneficiaries
• Desk review of relevant documents (e.g. government policies, SOPs, and strategic documents developed or influenced by the project)

Note: A set of tailored interview guides will be developed for each stakeholder category (e.g., civil society, scheme operators, recruiters, migrant representatives, and government officials). While some core questions will be consistent across respondents—for example, perceptions of migrant risks, support systems, and policy gaps—each guide will be adapted to reflect the specific role and expertise of the interviewee. Information sought from each category will differ, e.g:

Scheme Operators and UK employers: recruitment processes, workplace conditions, grievance handling, communication with workers, and perceptions of Central Asian workers’ needs.

Recruiters and civil society organisations: fraud risks, referral pathways, support services, and emerging challenges faced by migrants.

Government officials: policy changes, institutional roles, coordination mechanisms, and system-level constraints.

Migrant representatives: collective issues raised by workers, barriers in accessing support, and patterns observed across seasons.

Some of this information may overlap with migrant perspectives, but KIIs are intended to gather institutional and system-level insights that cannot be captured through FGDs alone. FGDs will focus on migrants’ lived experiences, while KIIs will provide contextual, operational, and policy-level information necessary to interpret and triangulate those experiences. 

Qualitative data collection will explore the following themes in greater depth:

• Rights and support: Awareness of rights and ability to use complaint or legal support systems.
• Fraud and exploitation: Experiences with scams, abuse, or unsafe working conditions.
• Livelihoods and reintegration: Effects on household income and post-return opportunities.
• Gender dynamics: Gender-specific challenges and coping strategies.
• Institutional support: Effectiveness of services and referral systems, and government/IOM assistance.

c. Integration of Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

Qualitative data collection will occur after or in parallel with early survey insights. Initial descriptive survey results will inform qualitative tools to:

• Validate and explain patterns observed in the data
• Explore causal pathways and Theory of Change assumptions
• Understand contextual drivers and unexpected trends
• Triangulate evidence and strengthen credibility

The evaluation team will conduct a rapid preliminary analysis of survey responses to refine FGD/KII guides. IOM country missions will be involved to ensure contextual relevance and accurate interpretation.

Complementarity of Methods

d. Endline Questions (what we ask)

The questions are structured around the three main impact areas established in the project document and key cross-cutting issues.

Analytical Framework (how we answer the questions)

The analytical framework will guide how the endline assessment interprets data, draws conclusions, and links project activities to the observed changes. It will focus on three main dimensions: impact, causal contribution, and sustainability - helping to explain what changed, how/why it changed, and whether those changes will last.

                              Addressing Lack of Original Baseline

As no formal baseline was conducted at project start (and impact indicators were revised in Year 3), baseline conditions will be partially reconstructed using:

• Recall questions in the endline survey aligned with key indicators (e.g., status before departure/PDO)
• Use of administrative and monitoring data collected over the project period. IOM and government partners will facilitate access to migrant contact lists, administrative data, and relevant project records required for sampling, recruitment, and verification purposes. 
• Triangulation with qualitative evidence (FGDs, KIIs, case studies) Where full before-and-after comparison is not possible, contribution analysis and Theory-of-Change testing will be applied, with limitations transparently documented.

Illustrative causal testing examples

The evaluation will not assert direct causation (the project caused all changes) but will examine plausible and evidence-supported contribution to observed outcomes.

Deliverables and Timeline

The endline assessment will be conducted over a three-month period (December 2025 – February 2026). All deliverables must be submitted in English and meet IOM’s quality, reporting, and data protection standards. Once implementation starts with the selected consultant/service provider, some final adjustments to the methodology and data collection tools may be made during the inception phase, in coordination with IOM.

Indicative Timeline

Reporting and Supervision

The consultant(s) will work in close coordination with relevant IOM country offices and partners.

• IOM Kyrgyzstan Office – Lead on regional coordination, donor liaison (FCDO/ISF), and overall reporting.
• IOM Country Offices in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – Support data collection, provide national context, and facilitate engagement with local stakeholders.
• IOM UK Mission – Provide technical guidance on the Seasonal Worker Scheme and facilitate contact with UK-based partners and stakeholders

Qualifications

Qualifications and Experience

• Advanced university degree in social sciences, development studies, economics, or a related field.
• At least 5 years of experience in evaluation design, data collection, analysis, and reporting for international development or migration-related projects.
• Demonstrated experience in conducting impact evaluations using mixed-methods approaches.
• Strong understanding of migration dynamics and policy environments in Central Asia.

Required Skills

Job info