TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANT - Team Leader/Population Dynamics Expert, UNFPA Mongolia 7th Country Programme Evaluation

Purpose of consultancy:

To provide an independent assessment of the UNFPA Mongolia 7th Country Programme (2023-2027) regarding its relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, and sustainability, and to broaden the evidence base to inform the design of the next programme cycle.

The evaluation team leader will hold the overall responsibility for the design and implementation of the evaluation. S/he will be responsible for the production and timely submission of all expected deliverables in line with the ToR. S/he will lead and coordinate the work of the evaluation team and ensure the quality of all evaluation deliverables at all stages of the process. 

Thematic Role (PD): In addition to leadership duties, the Team Leader will serve as the primary technical expert for  the Population Dynamics and Data thematic area. S/he will assess the programme's contribution to strengthening national data systems, the use of disaggregated data for policy-making, and the integration of population dynamics, including demographic dividend, ageing, into development planning. 

The CPE manager will provide methodological guidance to the evaluation team in developing the design report, in particular, but not limited to, defining the evaluation approach, methodology and work plan, as well as the agenda for the field phase. S/he will lead the drafting and presentation of the design report and the draft and final evaluation report, and play a leading role in meetings with the ERG and the CO. The team leader will also be responsible for communication with the CPE manager. Beyond her/his responsibilities as team leader, the evaluation team leader will serve as technical expert for one of the thematic areas of the country programme. 

Detailed list of deliverables is included in the Country Programme Evaluation Terms of Reference document.

Scope of work: 

(Description of services, activities, or outputs)

The consultant will lead the evaluation team and serve as the technical expert for Population Dynamics. Specific duties include:

1. Evaluation Management: Hold overall responsibility for the design and implementation of the evaluation and the timely submission of all deliverables. Lead and coordinate the work of the national team members.

2. Technical Expertise: Assess the programme's contribution to strengthening national data systems, the use of disaggregated data for policy-making, and the integration of population dynamics (including demographic dividend and ageing) into development planning.

3. Reporting: Lead the drafting of the Design Report and the Final Evaluation Report. Lead the presentation of findings at the debriefing meeting with the Country Office and Evaluation Reference Group.

Duration and working schedule:

60 non-consecutive working days distributed between March 2026 and September 2026.

Place where services are to be delivered:

Home-based, with one mission to Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar and selected provinces) during the field phase.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.):

All deliverables must be submitted electronically in English.

• Final Design Report: by 30 April 2026 

• Completion of In-Country Data Collection Mission: by 29 May 2026

• Draft Final Evaluation Report: by 31 July 2026

• Final Evaluation Report & PowerPoint: by 31 August 2026.

Detailed list of deliverables is included in the Country Programme Evaluation Terms of Reference document.

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:

The consultant reports to the CPE Manager. Payments are based on approval of deliverables:

• 20% upon approval of Design Report.

• 40% upon submission of satisfactory Draft Final Report.

• 40% upon approval of Final Report and Presentation.

Supervisory arrangements: 

The consultant will work under the direct supervision of the CPE Manager (M&E Officer) at the UNFPA Mongolia Country Office.

Expected travel:

One mission to Mongolia for approximately 3 to 4 weeks (tentatively May 2026) to conduct data collection in Ulaanbaatar and sub-national sites (Western, Khangai/Central, and Gobi/Eastern regions).

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements:

• Master’s degree in public health, social sciences, demography, statistics, or related field.
• 10 years of experience in conducting evaluations in international development.
• Extensive experience leading complex evaluations commissioned by United Nations organizations and/or other international organizations and NGOs..
• Substantive knowledge on the generation, analysis, dissemination and use of housing census, population data for development, population dynamics (including the demographic dividend and youth-related data), migration and national statistics systems. 
• In-depth knowledge of theory-based evaluation approaches and ability to apply both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods and to uphold high quality standards for evaluation as defined by UNFPA and UNEG.
• Ability to ensure ethics and integrity of the evaluation process, including confidentiality and the principle of do no harm.
• Ability to consistently integrate human rights and gender perspectives in all phases of the evaluation process.
• Excellent management and leadership skills to coordinate the work of the evaluation team, and strong ability to share technical evaluation skills and knowledge.
• Ability to supervise a young and emerging evaluator, create an enabling environment for her/his meaningful participation in the work of the evaluation team, and provide guidance and support required to develop her/his capacity.
• Experience working with a multidisciplinary team of experts.
• Excellent ability to analyze and synthesize large volumes of data and information from diverse sources.
• Excellent interpersonal and communication skills (written and spoken).
• Work experience in/good knowledge of the region and the national development context of Mongolia.
• Excellent management, leadership, and English communication skills.

Inputs / services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:

The CO will provide all necessary background documents, facilitate access to stakeholders, and manage logistics for in-country travel (transport/accommodation bookings).

Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) and travel costs for the mission will be settled separately from the consultancy fees in accordance with UNFPA Duty Travel Policy.