Senior Data Scientist on Macro-Fiscal Model in Maldives

The ultimate result of this consultancy is to strengthen UNDRR’s analytical capacity to support the Government of Maldives in understanding and managing the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of disasters, with a particular focus on critical infrastructure systems. The consultancy will result in an improved, policy-relevant analytical framework that clearly links disaster-related damages and service disruptions in transport, power, telecommunications, and water infrastructure to macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal performance.

Home Base

20 Apr-26 Nov 2026

Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. Specifically, UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. The Maldives is a small island economy highly dependent on tourism and related services, with total GDP estimated at about USD 7.0 billion in 2024. Tourism directly contributes roughly 20–30 % of GDP and is the dominant driver of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, with around 2.05 million tourist arrivals recorded in 2024, a new peak for the country’s tourism sector. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has remained positive, with estimates ranging around 3–5 % in recent years, supported by tourism, transport, and communication services. However, the economy continues to face macroeconomic challenges, including inflation pressures, fiscal vulnerabilities, and a high public debt burden exceeding 130 % of GDP, which limits fiscal space for countercyclical and disaster-responsive spending. Due to its low-lying geography and reliance on coastal and marine-based activities, the Maldives is highly exposed to climate and disaster risks. Coastal flooding, storm surges, and extreme weather events pose significant threats to critical infrastructure sectors such as transport, power, telecommunications, and water systems. Damage to these systems can lead to large direct losses, disruptions in tourism operations and connectivity, and indirect macroeconomic impacts, including reduced output, employment, and government revenue. The fiscal implications of such disasters are notable, as emergency response, reconstruction, and revenue shortfalls can strain public finances in an already constrained budget environment. The Budget Stress Testing exercise thus aims to systematically assess how disasters translate into direct infrastructure losses and broader macro-fiscal effects, and how preventive investments (e.g., resilient infrastructure, early warning systems) and disaster risk financing instruments (e.g., insurance, contingency funds) can enhance economic stability and fiscal resilience in the Maldives. The consultant will be home based and work under supervision of Economic Affairs Office, UNDRR ROAP. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: 1. Data Collection and Preparation / Macro-Fiscal Model Development • Collect macroeconomic, fiscal, and infrastructure datasets relevant to the Maldives economy. • Compile historical macroeconomic and fiscal indicators required for macro-fiscal modeling. • Collect and consolidate data related to critical infrastructure systems, including power, transportation, telecommunications, and water infrastructure. • Clean, harmonize, and validate datasets to ensure consistency with national macroeconomic statistics and fiscal accounts. • Develop a structured database to support macro-fiscal modeling. • Design and develop a macro-fiscal modeling framework suitable for Budget Stress Testing in the Maldives. • Calibrate the model using historical macroeconomic and fiscal data. • Establish macroeconomic transmission channels linking infrastructure disruption to macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes. • Model the impacts of infrastructure disruptions on GDP, sectoral activity, fiscal revenues, government expenditures, fiscal balance, and debt dynamics. 2. Catastrophe modeling (CAT Model) Integration • Integrate disaster loss estimates generated from catastrophe risk modeling into the macro-fiscal model. • Translate infrastructure damages into macroeconomic shocks affecting production, investment, and fiscal revenues. • Incorporate disaster scenarios affecting key infrastructure sectors including power, transportation, telecommunications, and water systems. • Simulate disaster scenarios and assess their impacts on macroeconomic performance and public finances.

A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in predictive models, macroeconomic models, regressions, time series analysis, development of extreme event scenarios and analysis, statistics is required. • Work experience in preparing a macroeconomic model for a country is required. • Work experience in developing macro-fiscal models for countries and integrating CAT model outputs into macro-fiscal models is required. • Coding experience in Python, R, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Dynare Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Structured query language (SQL), Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheet (CSS), Java, Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) is required. • Work experience with national government and/or international organizations is desirable.

Fluency in English is required.

Due to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted.

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.