National Hydrological Modelling Expert (SSA) - Roster Call

Background:
The Kyrgyz Republic, as the “water tower” of Central Asia, holds nearly 8,000 glaciers and thousands of high-altitude moraine-dammed lakes whose breaches can generate catastrophic debris flows. Since 1952, more than 60 dangerous lake outbursts have been recorded in the country. Ongoing glacier retreat and permafrost degradation accelerate the emergence and expansion of such lakes, increasing the probability of sudden breaches under extreme precipitation or thermal stress.
The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic (MoES) operates an AI-driven GLOF monitoring system based on optical satellite data; it successfully forecast the outbursts of Lakes Zyndan-Western (2024) and Takyr-Tor (2025). However, the system does not yet incorporate localized climate scenarios, geomorphological breach-probability indicators or spatially explicit inundation hazard mapping.
The OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek (POiB), in close cooperation with MoES, is implementing the project “Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks in Priority Mountain Areas of Kyrgyzstan” (June 2026 – December 2027). The project is structured in two phases: Phase 1 (2026) — technical enhancement of the existing MoES monitoring system, aerial surveys, hazard mapping and pilot early warning frameworks; Phase 2 (2027) — field validation at 10 pilot lakes, procurement and installation of automated monitoring equipment, and operationalization of community early warning systems.
To deliver the project, POiB will contract national consultants on a Special Service Agreement (SSA) modality. The present Terms of Reference (ToR) define the duties, deliverables and time schedule of the consultant.
 

Objective of Assignment: 
To design, calibrate and operationalize hydrodynamic models simulating GLOF breach scenarios for 5–10 priority lakes in Kyrgyzstan, produce associated inundation hazard datasets, and build national capacity to interpret and update hazard maps within the enhanced MoES GLOF monitoring framework.

Tasks and Responsibilities:
 

1. Inception with POiB, HMFD MoES and the Climate Scientist; review of MoES monitoring system interface and integration options; preparation of modelling work plan; compilation of digital elevation models (ALOS PALSAR, Copernicus GLO-30) and historical flood records.
2. Development of the hydrological scenario simulation tool consuming downscaled climate inputs from the Climate Scientist; integration into the MoES monitoring system interface (or delivery of scripts/initial code where direct integration is not feasible); preparation of a technical user manual in Russian.
3. Construction of HEC-RAS 2D (or equivalent) hydrodynamic models for 5–10 priority moraine-dammed lakes; simulation of multiple breach scenarios varying breach size, formation time and outburst volume; generation of flood extent, depth, velocity and arrival-time rasters; joint work with the GIS Specialist on map production.
4. Refinement of inundation scenarios with aerial-survey-derived inputs (Activity 1.4) and geomorphological indicators (Activity 1.2); preparation of the inundation hazard mapping technical report; delivery of Module 3 “Hydrodynamic Modelling and Hazard Map Interpretation” to up to 20 HMFD MoES staff (Activity 2.1).
5. Survey-planning support to Activity 2.3 (definition of bathymetric profiling requirements per lake); preparation of model update protocol for incorporation of bathymetric and dam-stability data.

6. Update of hydrodynamic models with bathymetric measurements and field observations collected under Activity 2.3; revalidation of inundation maps; integration of revised trigger thresholds into early-warning SOPs (jointly with DRR Expert); preparation of final modelling technical report and handover of all model files (HEC-RAS projects, scripts) to MoES.

   
    

Deliverables:
 

1. Modelling inception note (EN/RU); DEM and data inventory.
2. Scenario simulation tool (code + documentation); technical manual (RU).
3. Calibrated hydrodynamic models (5–10 lakes); scenario raster outputs.
4. Final inundation modelling report (EN/RU); Module 3 training package; training delivery report.
5. Bathymetric data collection protocol; model update plan.
6. Updated hydrodynamic model archive; final modelling report (EN/RU); handover package.
    

For more detailed information on the structure and work of the OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek, please see: OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek.

Necessary Qualifications:

• Advanced university degree (Master’s or PhD) in hydrology, hydraulic engineering, water resources engineering, civil engineering or a closely related discipline;
• Minimum 5 years of professional experience in hydrodynamic / 2D flood modelling, with demonstrated proficiency in HEC-RAS 2D and/or FLO-2D, RAMMS, r.avaflow or equivalent tools;
• Proven experience modelling debris flows, dam-break or GLOF events in mountain catchments (Central Asia or comparable mountain regions);
• Experience integrating climate / hydrological scenarios into hydrodynamic frameworks;
• Working knowledge of GIS platforms (QGIS, ArcGIS, SAGA GIS) and digital terrain analysis;
• Proven training and capacity-building experience;
• Proven training and capacity-building experience with national institutions;
• Fluency in Russian and good working knowledge of English; knowledge of Kyrgyz is an asset;
• Familiarity with OSCE or comparable international-organization procedures is an asset;
• Previous experience of conducting research, data collection and analysis would be an asset;
• Professional fluency in the Russian and Kyrgyz, both oral and written;
• Demonstrated gender awareness and sensitivity, and an ability to integrate a gender perspective into tasks and activities;

• Ability and willingness to work as a member of team, with people of different cultural, and religious backgrounds, different gender, and diverse political views, while maintaining impartiality and objectivity;

• Computer literate with practical experience using Microsoft applications.

Remuneration Package:

Remuneration will be based on the selected consultant's/expert's qualifications, experience, the tasks and deliverables for this position and in accordance with the OSCE established rates.

If you wish to apply for this position, please use the OSCE's online application link found under https://vacancies.osce.org/.

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Only those candidates who are selected to participate in the subsequent stages of recruitment will be contacted.

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