International Consultancy | Demographic resilience reviews and foresight-based scenario planning

Purpose of consultancy:


Demographic change occurs through shifts in population size, composition (by age and sex), and territorial distribution and manifests, for example, in population ageing, youth bulge, changing household structure, distinct migration patterns, rural depopulation and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not merely outcomes of development; they are powerful drivers. They influence economic growth and transitions, labor markets, fiscal systems and the demand for and sustainability of social services like pensions, education, healthcare and employment. They can affect inequalities and social cohesion. And they interact with climate change in affecting our planet. The relationships are bidirectional. Socio-economic conditions, peace and stability, housing, access to health and education and employment, just to name a few, significantly determine morbidity and mortality, the realization or non-realization of fertility aspirations and migration flows.

Amongst the questions linked to demographic shifts to which governments need to provide answers are the ones that relate to the future demand for public goods and services - like education, health, social protection, employment, physical infrastructure etc. - and the evolution of fiscal space. Population size, demographic composition and territorial distribution in fact shape the global and local demand for goods and services, and fiscal revenues and public spending. Through the fourth outcome of its Strategic Plan, 2026-2029, UNFPA seeks to support member states towards evidence-based and rights-based adaptation to their demographic trajectories.

Part of UNFPA’s approach is support to member states in undertaking demographic resilience reviews. These reviews entail a comprehensive forecast of the demand for various public goods and services - education, health, social protection, labor market and other public goods and services - based on projected changes in the total population and the population age structure within a longer time horizon (e.g. up to 50 years). The forecasts include baseline estimates (applying current and/or historical ratios for various public goods and services (e.g. teacher/pupil ratio) and alternative estimates assuming defined levels of improvement (based, for example, on national development visions, SDG targets and other nationally-determined targets). The demand forecasts are applied further to estimate the fiscal and revenue implications of changing population age structure, taking into consideration gender, regional and other disparities.

The UNFPA regional office for Arab States (AS) is seeking the services of an international consultant to conduct demographic resilience reviews in selected

countries1. The work is part of an interregional effort by UNFPA regional offices for Arab States (ASRO) and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECARO) to support evidence-based policies for adaptation to demographic change. The goal of the initiative is to develop and implement an integrated framework to support countries in long-term planning for sustainable provision of public goods and services aligned with their demographic trajectories. The initiative will document the full methodology and implementation experiences to support its adaptation to different country contexts.

While leading the work in ASRO, the international consultant will collaborate closely with his/her counterpart for the EECA region, an overall expert in foresight analysis and scenario planning and national consultants identified from each of the participating countries in the region. The results of the demographic resilience reviews will feed into a complementary scenario-based foresight analysis to broaden the range of probable and plausible scenarios of future demand for and supply of public services and goods taking into consideration other relevant factors and strengthen countries’ long-term planning.

You will report to the Population and Development Advisor at UNFPA ASRO.

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The UNFPA Strategic Plan for 2026-2029 articulates the organization’s response to a complex global environment, providing a roadmap for resilience and renewal. It is designed to accelerate the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This mandate is pursued through a focus on four interconnected outcomes: ending the unmet need for family planning; ending preventable maternal deaths; ending gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapting to demographic change through evidence and rights-based policies.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff who embody these international norms and standards and will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates who transform, inspire, and deliver high-impact sustained results, ensuring effective external relations, communications, partnership-building and resource mobilization in a rapidly changing development and funding landscape. We need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them, and who commit to delivering excellence in programme results

 

Scope of work:


The demographic resilience reviews will be based primarily on secondary data. The analysis will be undertaken with the support of a national consultant and in close collaboration with UNFPA Country Offices and national counterparts in each of the selected countries. The analysis will address the following questions for each of the selected countries:

• How will future demand for public goods and services, like education, health, social protection, pensions etc., evolve with projected changes in the size, age structure and territorial distribution (e.g. rural vs. urban) of the population? In other words, how many more/less doctors, nurses, hospital beds, teachers, schools, childcare places, etc. will be needed in 20-50 years to respond to the needs of the population?
• What will happen to public budgets and fiscal balances as the population size and structure change? In other words, how will the projected demographic shifts affect the government revenues (through changes in the working-age population and the dependency ratios, and the fiscal base) and expenditures (strongly driven by age-specific population groups)?
• How might the forecasts be influenced by and in turn influence gender, regional and other disparities?
  
  In responding to these questions, the analysis will integrate specific foresight evidence, in a second phase, to respond to the question:
• How might other major factors or shifts in the horizon, for example, in the technological, social, political, environmental and other spheres, affect the demand for and the supply of public goods and services? In particular, how may technological progress (e.g. digitalization and AI) and its uptake (e.g. telemedicine, virtual schooling, etc.) impact the provision of public goods and services? How can these shifts be integrated with demographic change for a more comprehensive (foresight-based) long-term planning of public goods and services?
  
   

The consultant will undertake the following tasks:

• Conduct a desk review of existing models and methodological approaches for estimating future demand for and supply of public goods and services in key sectors linked to demographic change (including indicators, definition of the forecast assumptions, etc.). This includes review of the project concept note and other demographic resilience reviews developed by UNFPA. Based on the desk reviews, develop a harmonized methodological approach for the assignment in coordination with the counterpart consultant from the EECA region, UNFPA Regional Advisors, Specialists, Country focal points and national consultants. This methodological approach should include a standardized analytical framework defining the core dimensions of demographic resilience, a common set of indicators, modelling assumptions, data quality assurance procedures and minimum data requirements to ensure comparability across countries while allowing adaptation to country-specific contexts.
• Develop an inception report detailing the overall methodological approach, workplan, and data requirements for the assignment, including a detailed strategy for working with national consultants and institutions in the assigned region and coordinating with the consultant in the other region and the expert in foresight analysis and scenario planning.
• Review and compile national and subnational population projections and demographic trends for each country.
• Using the methodological approach developed, generate estimates of future demand for public goods and services as shaped by demographic change over a 30-50 year time horizon for each country. The estimates should demonstrate how future demand for public goods and services, like education, health, social protection, pensions etc. will change based on projected changes in the population size, age structure and territorial distribution. The analysis should explicitly distinguish between demographic pressures, demographic opportunities and institutional preparedness, allowing governments to identify not only future service needs but also strategic investment opportunities and policy priorities.
• Using the methodological approach developed, generate estimates of changes in public budgets and fiscal balances as shaped by changes in the population size and age structure over a 30-50 year time horizon for each country. The estimates should demonstrate how projected demographic changes will affect the government revenues and expenditures.
• Develop a draft consolidated demographic resilience review report for each country, inclusive of the national reports, covering but not limited to the following areas: i) country context; ii) demand forecasts by sectors; iii) fiscal implications; iv) sub-national estimates; v) assessment of demographic governance and institutional readiness for adapting to demographic change and vi) policy recommendations.
• Develop presentation slides highlighting key findings and recommendations for each country to be discussed at a national stakeholder forum.
  
  Participate in discussion and validation of findings at national and multi-country levels. This includes facilitating structured learning across participating countries 2
  
  by identifying common findings, context-specific differences and transferable lessons that can strengthen UNFPA's global programme offer on demographic resilience.
• Develop and submit the final demographic resilience review report for each country incorporating all feedback, including from the national stakeholder forum, for final approval by UNFPA.
• Contribute to a foresight-based analysis on other major factors or shifts that may affect the demand for and supply of public goods and services and their integration with demographic change for a foresight-based long-term planning of public goods and services.
• Develop and submit the final foresight-based scenario planning report based on the integration of additional foresight-based scenarios.
• Develop and submit an overall methodological report documenting all steps of the methodological approach and the application.
  
   

Deliverables: 

• An inception report detailing the methodological approach, workplan, and data requirements for the assignment and the overall strategy for working with national consultants and institutions in the assigned region and coordinating with the international consultant in the other region and the expert in foresight analysis and scenario planning.
• A draft consolidated demographic resilience review report for each country, presenting estimates of future demand for public goods and services (sectoral forecasts) and estimates of changes in public budgets and fiscal balances (fiscal forecasts) as shaped by demographic change over a 30-50 year time horizon (sectoral forecasts).
• A slide deck on key findings and recommendations presented at a national stakeholder forum (Presentation slide deck).
• A final demographic resilience review report for each country (Final Demographic Resilience Review).
• A draft foresight-based scenario planning report based on the integration of additional foresight-based scenarios.
• A final report integrating demographic resilience review and foresight-based scenario planning for each country (Final foresight-based scenario planning report).
• An overall methodological report documenting all steps of the methodological approach and the application. This methodological report should include practical implementation guidance, recommended analytical tools and templates to facilitate replication of the approach in other UNFPA programme countries.