Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting

| Position title: Senior Manager, Vaccine ForecastingContract type / duration: 5-year fixed-term contractLocation: GenevaDepartment: Vaccine Programmes & Markets (VPM)Team: Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management (VFSM)Reports To:  Head, Vaccine ForecastingN° of positions supervised  (if applicable): 0Career Step: 41. About the RoleThe Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting sits within the Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management team in the Vaccine Programmes & Markets department. The role works closely with Market Shaping, Vaccine Programmes, Finance, and country delivery colleagues, and engages externally with UNICEF Supply Division and other partners involved in Gavi-supported vaccine programmes. Its core purpose is to lead forecasting for an assigned portfolio of vaccine programmes so that demand, supply, price, and cost projections support clear, timely, and well-informed operational and strategic decision-making.2. Key Responsibilities• Lead forecasting for a designated portfolio of vaccine programmes, producing demand, supply, price, and cost projections that inform operational planning and strategic decisions.• Contribute to selected cross-cutting forecasting activities across Gavi’s vaccine portfolio that require specialised modelling, analysis, and coordination.• Develop, maintain, and continuously improve vaccine forecasting models and supporting documentation to ensure forecasts are transparent, robust, and fit for decision-making.• Coordinate the collection, validation, and integration of programme inputs into forecast updates, ensuring consistency across vaccine-specific forecasts and overall Gavi forecasting deliverables.• Maintain linkages with related activities in other teams and organizations, coordinating forecasting support needs as appropriate• Generate and analyse forecast scenarios, communicate results , and respond to analysis requests from internal and external stakeholders to support timely decisions.• Monitor actuals against forecasts for selected vaccines, providing updates on forecast accuracy, key risks, and issues that may affect programme performance, supply continuity, or financial planning.• Advise on vaccine-specific factors in forecasting and dose quantification considerations relevant to individual country planning and grant approval processes;• Support vaccine working groups with forecasting expertise in the problem-solving of relevant issues that emerge, for example, in supply and demand imbalances and manufacturer disruptions;• Contribute to in continuous improvement efforts in processes, methodologies, tools, and systems used in forecasting vaccine dose requirements, serving as focal point on designated topics;• Contribute to core team enablement areas, including providing regular updates on forecast activities, developing standard operating procedures, updating KPIs and supporting continuity across the sub-team, including backup support as requiredNote: The essential functions listed in this section are not exhaustive of the job responsibilities; other duties may be assigned consistently with the department needs.3. Your Experience and SkillsProfessional Experience:• Typically 8- 12 years of relevant experience in forecasting, supply planning, or demand planning roles within pharmaceutical (vaccine preferred), global public health, or FMCG environments.• Experience in building and maintaining forecast models, with significant exposure to addressing both short and long-term projection needs.• Background in the design, implementation, and improvement of individual forecasting tools, with additional experience in multiuser forecasting systems preferable.• Background in functions working with programmatic, operational, and financial information from multiple sources, including data collection, management, reconciliation, quality control, and analytics;• Experience supporting strategic and operational decision-making, gained in settings such as management consulting, product management, or comparable analytical roles.• Experience working across multiple stakeholders and functions, including collaboration with programme, market, finance, and external partner counterparts in complex planning environments.Education & Qualifications:• University degree in economics, finance, engineering, statistics, or other relevant quantitative disciplines is required; a master’s degree is preferred.Technical & Functional Skills:• Skilled at various methods used in forecasting, including quantitative statistical approaches and expert judgement driven models.• Analytical skills, able to translate complex historical data and forecast outputs into clear recommendations and decision support for operational and strategic stakeholders.• Good attention to detail and data quality control, including validation, reconciliation, and effective judgement on approximations when appropriate.• Excellent oral and written communication skills, able to synthesize complex information and communicate across disciplines and diverse stakeholders.• Expertise in building, improving, and using Excel-based forecast models is required; skills with other forecasting platforms or technologies is desirable.• Applied database (SQL) and scripting/programming skills (e.g. VBA, Python, R, or similar) is preferred.• Artificial intelligence skills applied in the design, implementation, and use of forecasting models or similar tools is preferred.Languages Needed:• Fluent English is required.• French is desirable.4. How You Work (Behaviours and Mindsets)• Works effectively across teams and organisations, building collaborative relationships and maintaining a strong service orientation in environments where influence is required without direct authority.• Exercises sound judgment in complex or fast-moving situations, using structured thinking and appropriate approximation when decisions must be made with incomplete information.• Takes ownership of priorities and delivers to deadlines, staying organised and focused when managing multiple demands and time-sensitive work.• Approaches challenges proactively and constructively, identifying issues early, proposing practical solutions, and escalating risks when needed.• Operates independently while adapting quickly to changing priorities, evolving programme needs, and multicultural working environments. | |