Senior Data Scientist on Macro-Fiscal Models and Simulation Portals (Philippines and Maldives)

The ultimate result of this consultancy is to strengthen UNDRR's analytical capacity to support the Governments of the Philippines and the Maldives in understanding and managing the macroeconomic, financial and fiscal impacts of disasters and climate shocks. The consultancy will result in a macro-fiscal model for the Philippines and an enhanced macro-fiscal model for budget stress testing in the Maldives that link CAT model results, El Niño effects and critical infrastructure disruption to macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal performance, made accessible to national counterparts through simulation portals.

Homebase

25 Oct 26-31 May 27

Background Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. Specifically, UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. The consultant will be home based and work under the supervision of the Economic Affairs Officer, UNDRR ROAP. The consultancy covers two workstreams. Workstream 1: Philippines (until 28 February 2027) The Philippines is among the countries most exposed to tropical cyclones and floods in the world, and El Niño episodes regularly affect agricultural output, food prices and inflation. Under the Government of Japan-funded project "Advancing Risk-Informed Public DRR Investment in the Philippines and ASEAN through Partnerships with Academia and the Private Sector in Japan", UNDRR is developing national typhoon and flood CAT models and a macro-fiscal model for the Philippines. UNDRR is responsible for integrating acute disaster risk and El Niño effects into the model. Results will be made accessible to national counterparts through a simulation portal. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: • Support the development of the macro-fiscal model for the Philippines, including coding, calibration and testing. • Support the development of the El Niño block: estimate the link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators and agricultural yields, food prices and related variables, and feed the resulting shocks into the agreed entry points of the macro-fiscal model. • Support the integration of the outputs of the national typhoon and flood CAT models into the macro-fiscal model, mapping sectoral losses (residential, commercial/industrial, agriculture and public infrastructure) to capital stocks, output, sectoral balance sheets and fiscal accounts. • Support the integration of power outage (downtime) estimates for past typhoon and flood events into the model. • Support the design and running of stress scenarios, including return-period events and combined El Niño and disaster scenarios, and report their effects on growth, inflation, fiscal balance, public debt and financial sector indicators. • Design and develop a region-based simulation portal that displays Occurrence Exceedance Probability (OEP) curves, allows users to select hazards, return periods and scenarios, and presents macro-financial results in a clear, policy-ready format. • Include in the portal a module that lets government users enter their own with-project loss estimates for preventive investments and calculate avoided losses and return on investment (ROI), with an example calculation and sensitivity analysis. • Build access controls into the portal so that sensitive data and results can be restricted to authorized users. • Prepare model and portal documentation, a user guide, and a technical handover to national counterparts. Workstream 2: Maldives (until 31 May 2027) The Maldives is a small island economy highly dependent on tourism and related services, with total GDP estimated at about USD 7.0 billion in 2024. Tourism directly contributes roughly 20-30% of GDP and is the dominant driver of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, with around 2.05 million tourist arrivals recorded in 2024, a new peak for the country's tourism sector. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has remained positive, with estimates ranging around 3-5% in recent years. However, the economy continues to face macroeconomic challenges, including inflation pressures, fiscal vulnerabilities, and a high public debt burden exceeding 130% of GDP, which limits fiscal space for countercyclical and disaster-responsive spending. Due to its low-lying geography and reliance on coastal and marine-based activities, the Maldives is highly exposed to coastal flooding, storm surges and extreme weather events that threaten critical infrastructure such as transport, power, telecommunications and water systems. Under the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS) programme, UNDRR is supporting the Government of Maldives with a national CAT model for coastal flooding and tropical cyclone wind and with a macro-fiscal budget stress testing model. A first version of the macro-fiscal model was completed in 2026. This workstream will integrate CAT model outputs into the existing macro-fiscal model and develop a simulation portal for the Maldives. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: CAT model integration • Integrate the outputs of the national CAT model (coastal flooding and tropical cyclone wind) into the existing macro-fiscal budget stress testing model, using preliminary or final outputs as they become available, including average annual losses, exceedance probability curves and selected return-period events. • Collect and validate the additional data needed to map CAT model losses to the sectors and infrastructure systems represented in the model. • Translate damage and service disruption in power, transport, telecommunications and water infrastructure into shocks to tourism activity, sectoral output, government revenue and expenditure. • Run budget stress tests for selected disaster scenarios and report their effects on GDP, sectoral activity, fiscal revenues, government expenditures, fiscal balance and public debt. • Use the model to compare disaster risk financing instruments (contingency funds, contingent credit, parametric insurance and catastrophe bonds) and preventive investments (e.g. resilient infrastructure, early warning systems) in terms of their effects on fiscal balance and debt. Simulation portal • Develop a simulation portal for the Maldives, building on the design of the Philippines portal, allowing users to select hazards, return periods, disaster risk financing instruments and policy responses, and to view results for GDP, sectoral activity, fiscal revenues, government expenditures, fiscal balance, public debt and fiscal space indicators. • Include access controls, documentation and a user guide. Capacity development and handover • Deliver a training and handover session for the Ministry of Finance, the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and provide well-documented code for the CAT integration and the simulation portal.

Advanced university degree in Data Engineering, Data Science, Statistics, Mathematics, Mathematical Engineering, Economics or a related field is required. A first-level university degree in combination with a minimum of two additional years of qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in predictive models, macro-fiscal models, time series analysis, development of extreme event scenarios and analysis, and statistics is required. Work experience in preparing a macroeconomic model for a country is required. Coding experience in Python, R, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Structured Query Language (SQL), HyperText Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheets (CSS), Java and Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) is required. Work experience with national government and/or international organizations is required.

Fluency of English is required.

Due to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted.

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.