Climate mitigation modelling consultant

The contribution of the climate mitigation modelling consultant will result in consistent and well-documented technical modelling support to the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, in particular the LT-LEDS processes and sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors. By the end of the mission, the following will be delivered: o a modelling workplan covering the supported projects, including an inventory of models, data sources, key assumptions, scenario definitions and a quality-assurance approach; o reviewed baseline and mitigation scenarios for the LT-LEDS of key partner countries, with documented data, assumptions and results; o sectoral mitigation modelling outputs for energy, transport and other priority sectors, including emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses; o technical notes, modelling guidance and training materials supporting national counterparts and project teams engaged under the supported projects; o technical review notes on the proposals and project pipelines of key partner countries supported by UNEP, documenting findings and recommendations on their technical robustness.

Home-based

8 months, from 25/11/2026 to 20/07/2027

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the international environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment. The NDC Act & Invest project is a global programme led by UNEP and currently funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and the NDC Partnership’s Partnership Action Fund (PAF) multi-donor trust fund. It is designed to help countries raise their climate ambition and translate their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) submitted in 2025 into actionable, investable plans. Structured around three interconnected workstream, fostering G20+ ambition and action, piloting policy and planning alignment, and providing deep-dive support to enhance NDC investability, the initiative aims to bridge the gap between climate commitments and tangible implementation. By aligning national strategies, strengthening enabling environments, and working collaboratively with key partners, including the NDC Partnership, GIZ, UNDP’s Climate Promise, UNFCCC, multilateral development banks (MDBs), development finance institutions (DFIs), and private sector actors, NDC Act & Invest seeks to make the next generation of NDCs both more ambitious and more achievable, accelerating progress toward the 1.5°C goal and enhancing global resilience. The NDC Act & Invest team, based within the Mitigation Branch in Paris, is responsible for the global management and overall coordination of the project across partner countries, in line with UNEP’s delivery model. The team also acts as the main liaison between UNEP and the NDC Partnership, coordinating UNEP’s responses to country support requests shared through the Partnership, identifying and applying for additional funding where appropriate, and consolidating implementation and progress reporting. In addition, the team maintains close coordination with related projects under the IKI Programme to ensure coherence and synergies across initiatives. Several projects implemented under PAF and NDC Act & Invest portfolios involve a substantial quantitative modelling and technical components. These include the development of Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), which require economy-wide and sectoral emission projections to 2050, the definition of reference and mitigation scenarios and the assessment of mitigation potential and costs, as well as technical analysis of mitigation options in energy, transport and other key emitting sectors in support of NDC implementation and investment planning in partner countries, as well as the review of the technical aspects of proposals and project pipelines developed with key partner countries with NDC Act and Invest support. Robust, transparent and consistent modelling is essential to ensure that long-term strategies and NDC implementation plans are technically credible, aligned with national GHG inventories and policy targets. UNEP therefore seeks to engage a consultant to provide technical modelling support to these projects under PAF and NDC Act & Invest. The consultant will contribute hands-on modelling work and technical review across the supported projects, help ensure methodological consistency between country processes, contribute technical inputs to the guidance provided by UNEP to national counterparts and project teams, and assist UNEP in responding to additional modelling requests from partner countries channelled through PAF and NDC Act & Invest. Subject to the availability of additional PAF resources, this support may be extended beyond the initial contract period. The climate mitigation modelling consultant will: o Provide technical modelling support to the PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, in particular the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) processes partner countries, including the development of reference and mitigation scenarios and long-term emission pathways to 2050; o Develop and review sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other key emitting sectors, including emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses; o Support methodological consistency across country modelling exercises, alignment with national GHG inventories, NDC targets and IPCC methodologies, and provide technical advice to UNEP and national counterparts on data, assumptions, tools, scenario design and the treatment of uncertainty; o Support the translation of modelling results into policy-relevant outputs, including sectoral targets, costed mitigation measures and investment needs that feed into LT-LEDS, NDC implementation plans and NDC investment planning; o Review the technical aspects of proposals developed with key partner countries with UNEP support, including project pipelines, project concept notes and funding proposals, and provide structured feedback on baselines, emission reduction estimates, cost assumptions and methodologies; o Liaise, under the guidance of UNEP, with national modelling teams, consultants and partner institutions to avoid duplication and build on existing tools and datasets; o Document modelling approaches, assumptions and results, and prepare technical notes, guidance and training materials, and inputs for national counterparts, partners and donor reporting under PAF and NDC Act & Invest. Key competencies o Advanced quantitative modelling and scenario-analysis skills; o Strong analytical ability and attention to data quality, consistency and transparency of assumptions; o Sound understanding of climate mitigation policy, NDCs and long-term strategies; o Strong technical writing skills, with the ability to document methods, assumptions and results clearly; o Ability to review modelling work produced by others and provide constructive technical feedback; o Ability to support several country processes in parallel and meet project timelines; o Ability to communicate modelling results clearly to policymakers and non-specialists. 3. Workplan 3.1 Objectives, expected results and performance indicators The climate mitigation modelling consultant will be responsible for providing technical modelling support and review across the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, with a particular focus on the LT-LEDS processes in Namibia and Tanzania and on sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors, as well as on the review of the technical aspects of proposals and project pipelines developed by key partner countries with UNEP support. Modelling work will follow internationally recognised good practice, including IPCC methodologies for GHG estimation and UNFCCC guidance on long-term strategies, and will build on existing national models, inventories and datasets wherever possible. The consultant will work with information and modelling inputs provided by project teams, national consultants and country counterparts, and will revise deliverables following consolidated feedback from UNEP. The expected results below correspond to the main stages of the workplan, together with performance indicators against which their achievement can be assessed. Result 1: A consistent modelling methodology and workplan are established for the supported projects. Activity 1.1: review of existing modelling work and framing o review the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest project documents, existing LT-LEDS and NDC modelling work, GHG inventories, datasets, tools and timelines in Namibia, Tanzania and other supported countries; o define a common scenario framework (base year, time horizon, reference and mitigation scenarios, macroeconomic and demographic drivers) and a quality-assurance approach for modelling outputs; o identify gaps in the availability or quality of data and assumptions, and propose practical approaches to address them. Activity 1.2: development of the modelling workplan o develop an eight-month modelling workplan aligned with project timelines, national consultation processes and donor reporting milestones; o document, as agreed by UNEP, the division of modelling tasks between the consultant, national experts, project teams and country counterparts; o maintain an up-to-date inventory of models, datasets, versions and assumptions used across the supported projects. Expected deliverables: • 1.a. Inception and modelling package, comprising methodology, workplan, inventory of models and data, scenario definitions, gap assessment and quality-assurance approach, as described in section 2.3. Result 2: Baseline and mitigation scenarios for the LT-LEDS of Namibia and Tanzania are reviewed and documented. Activity 2.1: baseline (reference) scenarios o compile and validate activity data, emission factors and socio-economic drivers, in coordination with national counterparts and consultants; o develop or refine reference scenarios and long-term emission projections to the LT-LEDS time horizon, documenting all key assumptions; o review the consistency of baseline projections with national GHG inventories, NDC baselines and sectoral plans. Activity 2.2: mitigation scenarios and long-term pathways o identify and parameterise mitigation measures and technologies in consultation with national counterparts, and model mitigation scenarios and long-term low-emission pathways; o quantify emission reductions, mitigation potential and indicative costs, and assess consistency with NDC targets and long-term objectives; o carry out sensitivity analyses on key assumptions and maintain a clear audit trail for all results. Expected deliverables: • 2.a. Technical modelling packages for the LT-LEDS of Namibia and Tanzania, comprising documented baseline and mitigation scenarios, emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses, submitted according to the workplan. Result 3: sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors is conducted and documented. Activity 3.1: energy and transport sector modelling o develop energy-sector modelling (power generation, energy demand, fuels and efficiency) and transport-sector modelling (demand, modal shift, vehicle fleets and fuel switching), including baseline and mitigation scenarios; o quantify sectoral emission projections, mitigation potential and indicative costs, and prepare technical notes presenting methods, assumptions and results. Activity 3.2: other sectors and integration o model other priority sectors (industry, AFOLU and waste, as relevant) in line with the common scenario framework; o integrate sectoral results into consistent economy-wide emission pathways, checking for double counting and cross-sector interactions; o translate modelling results into sectoral targets, costed mitigation measures and investment needs that can feed into LT-LEDS, NDC implementation plans and NDC investment planning; o prepare consolidated results tables, charts and technical summaries suitable for use in LT-LEDS drafts, consultations and donor reporting. Expected deliverables: o 3.a. Sectoral technical modelling packages for energy, transport and other priority sectors, comprising documented scenarios, projections, mitigation potential and costs, submitted according to the workplan; o 3.b. Consolidated cross-sector results and technical summaries supporting the LT-LEDS drafts and related NDC Act & Invest outputs. Result 4: Technical review, guidance and knowledge transfer are provided to project teams and national counterparts. Activity 4.1: Technical review o review, at the request of UNEP, modelling outputs received from national consultants, partners and project teams, and provide technical comments to UNEP for its consideration; o review the technical aspects of proposals developed with key partner countries with UNEP support, including project pipelines, project concept notes and funding proposals, assessing the robustness of baselines, emission reduction estimates, cost assumptions and methodologies, and document findings and recommendations; o check the consistency of data, assumptions and results across sectors, scenarios and countries, and document issues and corrective actions; o prepare concise technical notes on methodological questions requiring decisions by UNEP or national counterparts. Activity 4.2: guidance, training and technical inputs o prepare modelling guidance and training materials, and support technical sessions with national counterparts and project teams; o liaise, under the guidance of UNEP, with national modelling teams, consultants and partner institutions (including the NDC Partnership, GIZ and UNDP Climate Promise) to avoid duplication and build on existing tools and datasets; o provide technical inputs to country consultations, donor reporting under PAF and NDC Act & Invest, and, upon request, the preparation of technical specifications for modelling work, for review and approval by authorised staff. Expected deliverables: o 4.a. Technical review notes, including on the technical aspects of proposals and project pipelines of key partner countries supported by UNEP, modelling guidance and training materials, submitted progressively over the course of the assignment; o 4.b. Technical inputs to consultations, donor reporting and technical specifications, submitted where required during the assignment. Result 5: Models, datasets and documentation are organised, and a complete handover package is delivered at the end of the assignment. Activity 5.1: Documentation and data management o maintain an organised and version-controlled record of models, input datasets, assumptions, results and technical notes, and check the consistency of figures and scenario definitions across documents. Activity 5.2: Final technical report and handover o prepare a consolidated final technical report summarising modelling approaches, results, limitations and recommendations across the supported projects; o finalise and document all models and datasets so that they can be updated and reused by national counterparts and project teams; o prepare clear handover notes and recommendations for the continuation of modelling work after the assignment. Expected deliverables: o 5.a. Final technical report and handover package, comprising the consolidated technical report, documented models and datasets, recommendations and complete handover file. 3.2 Specific tasks and responsibilities See above. Performance indicators: o submission of all deliverables in accordance with the agreed workplan; o deliverables meet high standards of quality, accuracy and relevance, assessed through review and supervision; o modelling framework and scenario definitions established and applied consistently across the supported projects; o baseline and mitigation scenarios for the LT-LEDS of Namibia and Tanzania are complete, documented and validated with national counterparts; o sectoral modelling results for energy, transport and other priority sectors are consistent with national GHG inventories and NDC baselines, and all key assumptions are traceable; o modelling guidance and training materials are delivered, and models and datasets are fully documented for reuse after the assignment; o technical reviews of proposals and project pipelines of key partner countries supported by UNEP are delivered on time, with documented findings and recommendations; o modelling results are translated into sectoral targets, costed mitigation measures and investment needs that can be used in LT-LEDS, NDC implementation and investment planning. 3.3 Reporting lines The consultant/individual contractor will report to Jérôme Malavelle, Global Coordinator of NDC Act & Invest, Global Climate Action Unit, Mitigation Branch.

o An advanced university degree (Master's degree or equivalent) in energy systems, environmental or energy engineering, economics, climate science, environmental sciences, or another closely related quantitative field; o A minimum of 8 years of progressively responsible professional experience in climate change mitigation modelling, energy system modelling or greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario analysis; o Experience in developing baseline and mitigation scenarios and long-term emission projections using recognised modelling tools (e.g. LEAP, TIMES/MARKAL, OSeMOSYS, GCAM, EPS, GACMO or equivalent); o Experience in sectoral mitigation analysis in energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) or waste, including the assessment of mitigation potential and costs; o Experience in linking mitigation scenarios to costing, investment needs assessments or NDC investment planning; o Experience documenting modelling approaches, assumptions and results for both technical and non-technical audiences, and in delivering training or technical guidance to national counterparts; o Advanced use of Excel and of at least one programming or statistical environment (e.g. Python or R) for data processing and scenario analysis;

o Excellent command of English, spoken and written, is required working knowledge of French would be an asset;

Not available.

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.