Consultancy on Development and documentation of a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM)

Develop a QPM calibrated to Jordan as the common application and its replication to Morocco. The applications will include macroeconomic effects of the shocks such as food prices, oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates, remittances and fiscal shocks as relevant. The assignment will deliver two complementary resources: a technical reference manual for maintaining and extending the model, and an example-based learning guide for using it with economic judgment.

Remote

2 months

Background: Sound and timely forecasting and policy analysis have become more important than ever for governments and central banks in the Arab region, which are frequently exposed to external shocks such as swings in food and oil prices, changes in global financial conditions and fluctuations in remittance flows. Assessing how such shocks are transmitted to growth, inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates, and designing appropriate policy responses, requires analytical frameworks that are internally consistent and transparent, and economists able to apply them with sound judgment. The challenge is more pressing for countries with limited policy space and high debt service burdens, where policy errors are costly. Against this background, ESCWA is strengthening capacity to use model-based frameworks for short- and medium-term forecasting and policy simulations. A Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) complements this annual macro-fiscal framework. As a semi-structural, quarterly gap model of the type widely used in central bank forecasting and policy analysis systems, the QPM focuses on near-term dynamics, including the output gap, inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates, and on the transmission of external shocks and policy decisions. It also provides a consistent framework for bringing short-term indicators, nowcasts and expert judgment into the forecast. Duties and Responsibilities: The consultant will work in close cooperation with the delegated staff member under the overall supervision of the Cluster Leader of the Shared Economic Prosperity. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: • Prepare an inception note confirming the model specification, data feasibility, deliverable sequence and timetable before implementation. • Prepare a QPM calibrated to Jordan and a reproducible baseline forecast, and document the model structure, equations, data, calibration and solution in close cooperation with UN ESCWA staff. All code shall be written in Python and shall rely exclusively on free-of-charge, open-source packages distributed under licences that permit use, modification and redistribution. • Document how the framework is used in practice, covering the forecasting cycle, the recording of judgment, policy simulations, model maintenance and extensions as evidence and policy needs evolve, in close collaboration with UN ESCWA staff. • Develop a practical learning guide built on numerous worked examples, following the approach set out below, including the four required shock applications. • Prepare a data inventory and a replication package in Python that allows all reported outputs to be recreated. • Address ESCWA’s consolidated technical comments on each draft deliverable and carry out the final replication checks. Working arrangements: The consultant will prepare the model for Jordan first, the applications and the guides, and respond to consolidated technical comments. ESCWA will nominate a focal point, confirm the intended audience and priority applications, and coordinate the review. The proposed sequence of work is: (i) inception and data review; (ii) model and baseline preparation; (iii) worked examples and draft guides; and (iv) technical review and final replication checks. ESCWA shall provide one consolidated set of written technical comments on each draft deliverable. ESCWA team will replicate the application for Morocco using the technical manual and share it with the consultant for validation including the comments. The consultant shall address the comments within the agreed scope and finalise the models for Jordan and Morocco and the technical guides.

A Master’s degree in economics, econometrics or related field. A first-level university degree in combination with two additional years of qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 15 years of professional work experience in macroeconomic analysis, modelling and forecasting is required, including hands-on experience in developing, calibrating and operating Quarterly Projection Models or similar semi-structural models for forecasting and policy analysis at a central bank, ministry of finance or international financial institution. Experience in documenting macroeconomic models and preparing technical manuals, training or learning materials for economists is required. Publication in reputed journals in this field is required. Advanced proficiency in Python for macroeconomic modelling, including writing documented and reproducible code, is required. Experience with model-solution and forecasting toolkits (for example, Dynare or Python-based equivalents) and with version control is desirable. Knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries, particularly Jordan, is desirable.

English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariate; and Arabic is a working language of UNESCWA. For this position, fluency in English is required. Note: "Fluency" equals a rating of 'fluent' in all four area ( speak, read, write, and understand).

Not available.

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.