Scientist - Hydrological forecast evaluation

About ECMWF

ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating
numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national
meteorological services in the Member States. The Centre also offers a catalogue of forecast data
that can be purchased by businesses worldwide and other commercial customers. The
supercomputer facility (and associated data archive) at ECMWF is one of the largest of its type in

Europe and Member States can use 25% of its capacity for their own purposes.
For details, see www.ecmwf.int/.

ECMWF has long recognised the value of high-quality forecasts in mitigating the effects of natural
disasters.

Recognising that floods are among the costliest natural disasters in Europe, the European
Commission instigated the development of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) at its
Joint Research Centre (JRC). Development and testing were carried out in close collaboration with
national hydrological and meteorological services, European civil protection agencies (through the
Emergency Response and Coordination Centre (ERCC)), and other research institutes. Since 2011,
EFAS has been part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) and it became fully
operational in 2012.

EFAS helps to protect European citizens, the environment, property and cultural heritage when major
floods occur by providing:

• added-value early flood forecasting products for hydrological services;
• unique overviews of current and forecast floods in Europe more than 3 days in advance;
• a European network of operational hydrological services

Current products include pan-European overview maps of flood probabilities up to 15 days in
advance and detailed forecasts at stations where the national services are providing real-time data.
More than 50 hydrological services and civil protection services in Europe are part of the EFAS
network.

Several European organisations, including ECMWF, are responsible for running the operational
EFAS system. As well as providing ensemble meteorological forecasts, ECMWF:

• acts as the EFAS Computational centre, the heart of data processing and model calculations;
• hosts the web interface for the EFAS Information System.Alongside this, ECMWF co-operates with the JRC in the provision of the pre-operational Global

Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS scales the approaches used in EFAS to the global
domain and is expected to go fully operational as part of the Copernicus EMS during 2017.

Summary of the role

The focus of the position will be the evaluation of hydrological forecasts produced at ECMWF,
especially those from EFAS and GloFAS. Currently, overall skill assessments are undertaken during
the development of improvements to the EFAS and GloFAS systems, but the methods employed are
not always consistent across the different products and forecasting ranges. Whilst verification of
hydrological forecasts against pseudo-observations is conducted every month, in-situ observationalbased
verification and model diagnostics occur on a more ad-hoc basis after major flood events have
been reported.

New developments are envisaged to move towards a more systematic evaluation of hydrological
forecasts, and for methods to be better aligned with techniques currently applied to the ECMWF
Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). More specifically, the developments should:

• develop a systematic, consistent approach to hydrological forecast evaluation, including skill
  metrics, performance verification and diagnostics;
• build synergies between the evaluation of CEMS (e.g. EFAS and GloFAS) products and the
  approaches developed for ECMWF’s IFS evaluation

The role may also include further work associated with addressing these two objectives.

Main duties and key responsibilities

• Maintaining and developing approaches and tools for the evaluation of forecasts from the
  European and Global Flood Awareness Systems and ECMWF’s hydrological forecasts more
  generally
• Investigating the use of hydrological observations within the evaluation of hydrological forecasts
• Working closely with the team delivering ECMWF’s CEMS activities, scientists from the Forecast
  Department involved in ECMWF’s evaluation activities, and with the EFAS data collection and
  dissemination centres
• Leading monthly reporting of hydrological forecasting performance
• Documenting tools and results through scientific documents and publications

Personal attributes

• Good communication and interpersonal skills
• Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills, and a proactive approach
• Flexibility, with the ability to adapt to changing priorities and user needs
• Dedication and enthusiasm to work independently and in a small team
• Eagerness to work in a collaborative environment for shared ownership
• Ability to work across disciplines and with different international organisations

Qualifications and experience required

Education

A university degree, or equivalent experience, in hydrology, statistics or a
related discipline.

Experience

• Extensive experience in hydro-climatology and use of statistics in hydrology.
• Experience in operational hydrological forecasting and evaluation, including an
  understanding of hydrological data quality and knowledge of access to
  observational databases, would be an advantage,
• Experience in processing outputs from ensemble hydrological forecasts and
  large datasets would be an advantage.
• Experience in drafting and producing written reports, scientific papers or other
  relevant documentation.

Knowledge, skills and language

• Excellent knowledge of scientific programming, programming languages and
  shell scripts. Knowledge of one of Python, R or Fortran is essential; and SQL
  would be an advantage.

Good knowledge of Linux systems (and/or UNIX).

• Ability to develop, modify, implement and test code.
• Candidates must be able to work effectively in English and interviews will be
  conducted in English.
• A good knowledge of one of the Centre’s other working languages (French or
  German) would be an advantage

Other information

Grade remuneration

The successful candidate will be recruited at the A2 grade, according to the scales of the
Co-ordinated Organisations and the annual basic salary will be £56,487 net of tax. This position is
assigned to the employment category STF-PL as defined in the Staff Regulations.Full details of salary scales and allowances are available on the ECMWF website at

www.ecmwf.int/en/about/jobs, including the Centre’s Staff Regulations regarding the terms and
conditions of employment.

Starting date: 1 January 2018, or as soon as possible thereafter.
Length of contract: Three years.
Location: The position will be based in the Reading area, in Berkshire, United Kingdom.

How to apply

Please apply by completing the online application form available at www.ecmwf.int/en/about/jobs.
ECMWF has an Equal Opportunities Policy and applications from all suitably qualified candidates are
welcome.

Staff are usually recruited from among nationals of the following Member States and Co-operating
States: 

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Staff from other countries may be considered in exceptional cases.
Interviews for this position will take place in Reading, Berkshire, on 15 September 2017.