Individual Contractor (IC) – Industry and Value Chains Expert

Background

CONTEXT/BACKGROUND

The Arab region is a diverse mix of countries, cultures and economies, with most middle-income countries suffering from the effects of political instability. There are three broad categories the countries can be divided into in terms of their economies, the Oil Exporting Countries (OECs) such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Oil Exporting Countries (OICs) middle income countries like Jordan, Egypt and Morocco and Fragile and Crisis-affected Countries including Iraq, Libya and Syria. Keeping aside the OECs, most of the countries in the region faces high degrees of inequality and poverty. According to estimates from 2021, there are 42.4 million people living with less than USD 1.9 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) a day with about 80 percent of poor people living in Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Sudan. This would imply that the people living in the region are highly vulnerable to extreme poverty. Women and Youth are among the most economically vulnerable because of low female labour force participation and high unemployment rates among young people in the region.

The overall structure of the economies is shaped by high income OEC’s that have over 80 percent of its exports in goods based on oil compared to only 20 percent for OICs while some FCCs are also dependant on oil exports such as Iraq, Libya and Yemen (Ave. 87%) (2021) albeit with structural weaknesses. With smaller populations the OECs have 8 times higher GDP per capita than the OICs Unemployment in the Arab region is high at about double the world average and females and youth at a disadvantage with much higher rates taking into consideration variation across different countries of the region such as GCC countries vs. FCCs. The services sector accounts for over half of all employment (55 percent) in the region while agriculture and industry accounting for 21 and 24 percent respectively. Variations can be seen between OECs, OICs and FCCs with respect to the proportion of employment in the agriculture and industry sectors, however, services sector remains to the predominant employer. If employment is used as a proxy for business sectors in the region the same can be concluded that most of the enterprises are in the services sector with retail and wholesale as the dominant sub-sectors.

The Arab region has been struggling with a number of different challenges including conflict, inequality, unemployment, poverty, over reliance on rents at the macro level while at the firm level these consist of low productivity, weak technological adaptation, capacity issues, access to finance and poor governance. Governments around the region are working hard to tackle these challenges, with mixed results.

Trade is considered to be an important element in regional and local development contributing to the SDGs. It is considered as an effective tool for promoting citizens’ well-being and interlinking economic ties between economies to enhance business and employment opportunities.  While there is considerable debate about its negative and positive impacts, with the right policies instruments, trade led growth can be transformative. Intra-regional economic cooperation has been identified as an opportunity to strengthen resilience against shocks. Arab countries displayed the lowest rate of intraregional trade in the world and have been on average less open to trade with the rest of the world compared to rapidly growing economies. Increasing protectionism globally and weak economic outlook in Europe has further exacerbated the situation which is one of the main trading partners of the Arab countries.

UNDP’s work in this area has been through the Strengthening Arab Economic Integration for Sustainable Development (AEISD) project that ended in March 2022. The project helped Arab countries in taking steps towards a Pan Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) by supporting various Governments and institutions such as the League of Arab States while deepening broader economic and trade cooperation. It provided technical assistance and capacity development for the review and upgrade of regional and national trade policies in sectors of interest to Arab countries, such as trade in services, while also piloting solutions at the country level. Through the new Regional Programme (2022-2025), UNDP-RBAS aims to advance regional cooperation and policy dialogue on pro-poor, inclusive and sustainable growth.

A number of research studies are being conducted which will feed into and help in proposing key activities for a new more impactful regional project. This research will complement another study being conducted simultaneously to undertake country level analyses, review of challenges and opportunities in regional economic integration taking into account lessons learnt from the previous trade project. It will attempt to identify key value chains with highest potential for growth in the current context and future outlook at the regional and sub-regional level in important sectors. It will examine keys challenges and opportunities for value chain development in the Arab region especially given the slower growth of the Global Value Chains (GVCs) and the diversity of the regional production system as well as its complementarity. The findings of the research will feed into new project design, that aims for more integrated value chains, economic diversification, improve trade and economic policies, to help achieve higher growth and creation of decent jobs while alleviating poverty in the region through bringing about opportunities for businesses and income generation.

OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The overall objective of the assignments is to conduct research to analyse value chains in non-oil sectors (including value chains in which there is a high concentration of women-led businesses) with high growth and (sub)regional scale potential that include Middle- and Low-Income Economies. It will aim to examine value chains based on historical performance and future outlook considering global and regional trends in particular sectors. It will identify value chains that are competitive and can offer to improve economic integration across sectors and production networks in Arab countries towards achievement of SDGs including SME-led value chains. The research will quantify growth in each of the sectors and determine key challenges hindering its rapid development. It will look at the overall business environment and policies that have helped with the growth of these sectors and identify key impediments that have slowed down growth. The research will focus on 6 countries in the region two from each of the low-, middle- and high-income country groups. Based on the analysis carried out, the consultant should also share his/her views on how he/she sees the value chains developing over the short and medium term in the backdrop of global and regional crisis. The consultant should also take into consideration and compliment the findings of this study with the other research being conducted in parallel looking broadly at challenges and opportunities in regional economic integration.

Duties and Responsibilities

SCOPE OF WORK, RESPONSIBILITIES AND DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED WORK

The consultant will be responsible to conduct research study on the given topic. It will examine key challenges currently being faced that is hampering further growth and suggest remedial measures that can help the market to grow (sub)regionally. It will highlight the potential of these sectors for economic integration within the value chains in the region for collective gains. The consultant will coordinate regularly with the other consultant undertaking the country level analysis of regional economic integration occurring simultaneously. In doing so, the consultant will:

• Review the overall macroeconomic situation and growth prospects of the Arab States region. Commenting on the competitiveness of key industries, the overall socio-economic and political landscape to help set the stage for the following analysis;
• Based on the historic economic and financial performance, identify key high growth regional value chains in important sectors in the formal or informal economy and its contribution to specific SDGs at the regional and sub regional level. Analyse competitiveness of the industries and value chains with key sectors that have a comparative advantage in the region with the view to diversity the industrial base and open up intra-(sub)regional trade. The analysis should be undertaken with the gender lens and promising female dominated value chains should also be analysed;
• Carryout an in-depth mapping of the top ten high-potential value chains with the objective of: (i) identifying the functions and actors in the sector, (ii) documenting the extent and nature of the relationships between different actors (vertical and horizontal linkages), (iii) identifying the most promising value chains for creating jobs (including for women) and attracting investments at the regional level contributing to the overall economic growth, (iv)  proposing and reviewing  incentives provided by governments for growth of these sectors and their integration in regional value chains, and (v) assessing value chain's potential to support the Countries’ green transition;
• Quantify the value of potential growth and measure performance over a given period of time. Estimate the contribution of the value chains towards the national and regional GDP and its future growth prospects based on current and revealed comparative advantages as well as current and potential performance of firms in the sector. Measure the degree of intra-industry trade of products with high potential using techniques such as the Grubel-Lloyd Index. Draw comparisons with different competing high growth sectors and plot trends to demonstrate future growth prospects at the regional and sub regional level;
• Identify key bottlenecks and barriers that are hampering the expansion of key high potential value chains across multiple industries and geographies in the Arab region with commentary on constraints for women-led value chains, as well as constraints preventing women from participating in other value chains. Investigate the root causes of the impediments which could be related to productivity, business environment, access to finance, human capital, innovation or management while commenting on the barriers to competition from the perspective of Policy and Institutional, Legal and Regulatory Frameworks in place;
• Based on the barriers and the root causes identified in the point above, present a detailed analysis of the possible remedial measures which could help drive performance of the sector, disaggregating effects by key characteristics, such as size, sub-sector, inputs and outputs, and involvement in innovation and international trade. The analysis should help recommend options for the programme to foster growth in the potential sectors; and
• The research should be supported by at least 6 country case studies from the region acting as examples for high growth in key non-oil value chains over the last 10 years. The consultant will also present the findings of the research to key stakeholders in a workshop organized by UNDP.

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES

The findings of the study should be based on the empirical evidence collected and historical data of sector performance. It should be gender inclusive, and should examine how many firms and organisations in the sector are owned and operated equally by men and women, as well as young people under the age of 35, throughout the exercise. The study should evaluate growth paths that are more environmentally sustainable for the sector. In general, any potential sector/sub-sector can be chosen to be the subject of the study based on evidence.

The expert is expected to submit a draft paper based on the most recent statistics for the period 2012-2022, the most recent updates on national policies, and the main regional and international trade agreements pertinent to the sectors under study, as well as the potential contribution of sectors and value chains to the implementation of the SDGs, and other relevant regional and global factors.

The methodology should be: a) conflict and gender sensitive; b) outline a data gathering and analysis plan; c) execution plan based on current context; and d) should be responsive to the context and the practical needs of the UNDP RBAS. Taking this framework into consideration, the consultant is expected to undertake:

• Quantitative and qualitative analysis of available primary and secondary data from existing data sources and data collected by UNDP Country Offices, and national and local authorities;
• Review of the studies and documents produced as part of relevant UNDP projects and interviews with other consultants who have worked on the earlier regional economic integration project;
• Desk review of documents that were produced based on existing analysis (from UNCTAD, WTO, UNDP, IFC, IMF, WB, etc) of trade, industry and competition in the region; and
• Key informant interviews in the private sector enterprises, industry associations, chambers of commerce, SMEs and financial institutions; UN partners (at regional and national levels), IFIs (World Bank, IMF, IsDB, AfDB), selected government counterparts; and others as deemed essential.

KEY DELIVERABLES

The main deliverable of the study is a report that will highlight key high growth sectors of the value chains in the region, impediments to their growth and recommendations to remove barriers to growth. The deliverables for the report will be as follows:

EXPECTED OUTPUTS AND DELIVERABLES

Competencies

Corporate

• Demonstrates integrity and fairness, by modeling the UN/UNDP’s values and ethical standards;
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.

Functional

• Excellent analytical skills with ability to compile, analyse and interpret quantitative and qualitative data, prepare reports and draw conclusions and recommendations;
• Excellent technical writing and written communication skills, with analytic capacity and ability to synthesize relevant collected data and findings for the preparation of quality analysis for the project proposal;
• Proved knowledge of the Arab States region, including strong understanding of private sector in crisis context;
• Knowledge and understanding of gender equality issues in the region and gender analysis skills.
• Excellent oral and written communication skills to engage experts and liaising with external and internal stakeholders as appropriate;
• Ability to write clear and concise technical reports;
• Familiarity with the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and the SDGs;
• Familiarity with the UN/UNDP system would be an asset;
• Ability to the use of computers and office software packages and handling of web-based management systems;
• Builds strong relationships with clients, focuses on impact and result for the client and responds positively to feedback.

Leadership

• Demonstrated ability to think strategically and to provide credible leadership;
• Ability to conceptualize and convey strategic vision from the spectrum of development experience;

Managing Relationships

• Demonstrated ability to develop and maintain strategic partnerships;
• Demonstrated well developed people management and organizational management skills;
• Excellent negotiating and networking skills with strong partnerships in academia, technical organizations and as a recognized expert in the practice area.

Managing Complexity

• Ability to address global development issues;
• Demonstrated substantive leadership and ability to integrate knowledge with broader strategic, policy and operational objectives.

Knowledge Management and Learning

• Ability to strongly promote and build knowledge products;
• Seeks and applies knowledge, information and best practices from within and outside of UNDP;
• Demonstrates a strong capacity for innovation and creativity in providing policy advice and direction.

Judgment/Decision-Making

• Mature judgment and initiative;
• Proven ability to provide strategic direction to the project implementation process;
• Independent judgment and discretion in advising on handling major policy issues and challenges, uses diplomacy and tact to achieve result.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• Master’s Degree in Economics, Finance, Business Studies or any other related field;

Work experience:

• Minimum 10 years of relevant experience at the international level in research involving value chain analysis and support, economic growth, private sector, industrial growth, industry/firm competitiveness, economic diversification and international trade.
• Previous experience of undertaking research on growth and competitiveness of value chains at the global or regional level.
• Strong expertise in development programming, with a focus on economic issues.
• Experience in dealing with senior members of national and international institutions.

Language Requirements:

• Language fluency in both written and oral English is required. Good knowledge of French and/or Arabic would be an advantage.

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT

• The individual is required to exhibit his or her full-time commitment with UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS);
• S/He shall perform tasks under the general guidance and the direct supervision by Regional Lead Economist, and will work with the substantive support by relevant Regional Hub’s Teams, including Energy, Gender.
• The supervision will include approvals/acceptance of the outputs and deliverables as identified in the previous sections;
• The individual is required to maintain close communication with UNDP-RBAS on regular and needed basis at any period throughout the assignment in order to monitor progress. In the event of any delay, s/he will inform UNDP promptly so that decisions and remedial action may be taken accordingly. Delays that would affect the flow of the collaborative work and the delivery of outputs on schedule will lead to termination of contract; and
• Should UNDP deem it necessary, it reserves the right to commission additional inputs, reviews or revisions, as needed to ensure the quality and relevance of the work.

DURATION OF THE WORK

The duration of the assignment is expected to be (54) working day(s) extended over a period of (3) calendar month(s) from contract signature date.

DUTY STATION

Home-based assignment.

TRAVEL PLAN

If any unforeseen travel outside the consultant home-based city is requested by UNDP and not required by the Terms of References (ToR), such travel shall be covered by UNDP in line with applicable rules and regulations and upon prior written agreement. In such cases, the consultant shall receive living allowances not exceeding  the United Nations (UN) Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) rate for such other location(s).

SCOPE OF PRICE PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

Interested candidates should provide lump sum fees for requested services with detailed breakdown. This amount must be “all-inclusive”. Please note that the terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees,communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. Also, please note that the contract price will be Deliverables/Outputs based - not fixed - subject to change in the cost components.

The contractor will be paid an all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based lump sum amounts over the assignment period, subject to the submission of Certification of Payment (CoP) duly certified or an invoice and confirmation of satisfactory performance of achieved work (deliverables/outputs) in line with the schedule of payments table hereunder:

RECOMMENDED PRESENTATION OF OFFER

Interested individual consultants must submit documents under point 1, 2, & 3 to demonstrate their qualifications. Candidates that fail to submit these documents, the application will not be considered.

1. Personal CV or P11: indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;
2. Technical Proposal: Outlining the methodology and overall understating of the assignment’s content and scope of work required to achieve desired outcomes;
3. Duly accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability using the template provided by UNDP;
4. Financial Proposal* When the financial proposal is requested it should indicates the all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, as per template provided. The terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. If an Offeror is employed by an organization/company/institution, and he/she expects his/her employer to charge a management fee in the process of releasing him/her to UNDP under Reimbursable Loan Agreement (RLA), the Offeror must indicate at this point, and ensure that all such costs are duly incorporated in the financial proposal submitted to UNDP.

* Please do not submit financial proposal in this stage. Financial proposal shall be requested from Candidates who are considered technically responsive.

Interested candidates can find Procurement Notice, Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability and P11 templates on the following link: http://procurement-notices.undp.org/.

Interested candidates shall submit required documents to Job Advertisement Website (https://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_jobs.cfm) as one document not later than 05 November 2022.

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE BEST OFFERS

This selection criteria will follow the Combined Scoring method – where the qualifications and methodology will be weighted a max. of 70%, and combined with the price offer which will be weighted a max of 30%; using the following evaluation criteria and methodology:

Step I: Screening and desk review:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodology.

Applications will be first screened and only candidates meeting the following minimum requirements will progress to the pool for shortlisting:

• Criteria A: Master’s Degree in Economics, Finance, Business Studies or any other related field;
• Criteria B: Minimum 10 years of relevant experience at the international level in research involving value chain analysis and support, economic growth, private sector, industrial growth, industry/firm competitiveness, economic diversification and international trade;
• Criteria F: Language fluency in both written and oral English language;

Step II: 

Shortlisted candidates will undergo a technical evaluation which will include desk review for shortlisted candidates as per above criteria, and submission of a technical proposal to tackle the assignment.

Technical evaluation Criteria max 100 points (Weighted 70):

• Criteria A: Master’s Degree in Economics, Finance, Business Studies or any other related field (20 points);
• Criteria B: Minimum 10 years of relevant experience at the international level in research involving value chain analysis and support, economic growth, private sector, industrial growth, industry/firm competitiveness, economic diversification and international trade (25 points);
• Criteria C: Previous experience of undertaking research on growth and competitiveness of value chains at the global or regional level (10 points);
• Criteria D: Strong expertise in development programming, with a focus on economic issues (15 points);
• Criteria E: Experience in dealing with senior members of national and international institutions (10 points);
• Criteria F: Language fluency in both written and oral English language (5 points);
• Criteria G: Knowledge of written and oral French and/or Arabic is an asset (5 points);
• Criteria H: Technical Proposal (10 points).

Shortlisted candidates will be assessed and scored against the following evaluation criteria:

Financial Criteria - 30% of total evaluation

For those offers considered in the financial evaluation, the lowest price offer will receive 30 points. The other offers will receive points in relation to the lowest offer, based on the following formula: (PI / Pn) * 30 where Pn is the financial offer being evaluated and Pl is the lowest financial offer received.

Step III: Final evaluation

The final evaluation will combine the scores of the desk review and the financial proposal with the following weights assigned to each:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis methodology (weighted scoring method), where the award of the contract will be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:

• Responsive/compliant/acceptable; and
• Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

Technical Criteria weight: [70%]

Financial Criteria weight: [30%]

Only Individual Consultants obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70%) on the Technical Evaluation would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.