Consultancy: Data analytics for prioritizing locations and populations (10-24) at higher risk of HIV, HIV/AIDS Section, PD - NYHQ, Requisition #515030

One of the key bottlenecks for national Governments to deliver at-scale HIV Prevention programmes is “insufficient/ inefficient targeting of interventions at the right geographies and the right “at-risk” population segments and not reaching the most-in-need 10-24-year olds”, as stated above. The proposed consultancy is to support the HIV Section to develop cutting-edge analytics for prioritizing geographies and locating population-segments 10-24 years at higher risk of HIV, integrating traditional and novel methodologies, data sources and tools.

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Background & Rationale

Ending AIDS by 2030 is a global commitment under the SDGs, articulated under the overarching health goal of SDG 3 and linked to several other goals 1-5, 8, 10, 11, 16 and 17. The SDG Target on AIDS, Target 3.3 is, “By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseases”. ‘Ending AIDS by 2030’, leaving no one behind, will only be possible if the world ‘Ends Adolescent AIDS’.

The impressive investment in and scale up of prevention of mother to child transmission and universal anti-retroviral treatment services in the last decade have led to significant declines in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in adults (46% decrease in new infections between 2005 and 2016) and children (59% decrease in new infections between 2005 and 2016).  However, these investments have not translated into reduced HIV-related mortality among adolescents aged 10-19 years (24% increase between 2005 and 2016). AIDS continues to be a leading cause of death among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, the region most acutely affected by the epidemic. 

Progress in preventing new infections has been unacceptably slow (UNAIDS 2016). The decline in new infections is particularly slow among adolescents and young people. Globally, the annual new HIV infections in 2016, among adolescents 15–19 years and youth 15-24 years were only 27% lower than in 2005, compared to a 63% decline in children <5, during the same period. In 2016, 46% (360,000) of all the new infections (787,000) were in the 15-24 age group (15-19 years: 170,000; 20-24 years: 190,000); Girls accounted for 67% of new infections among those ages 15-19 and 53% of new infections among those 20-24. The decline in new infections between 2005 and 2016 across most regions ranged from 12% - 44% among those 15-19 years (Range: 12% decrease in Latin America and the Caribbean to 44% decline in South Asia), and between 10% and 37% among youth ages 20-24 years (Range: 10% decline in Latin America and the Caribbean to 37% decline in South Asia). The exception to this prevailing trend is in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region - where the HIV epidemic is centered around people who inject drugs (PWIDs) and their sexual partners. Eastern Europe and Central Asia has seen a 34% increase in new infections among 15-19 year olds and 51% among 20-24 year olds, between 2005 and 2016. There is emerging evidence on PWID epidemics in high burden settings.

The Fast Track 2020 target for HIV prevention is set at reduction of new infections by 75% by 2020, from 2010 base values. The following figure captures the global targets for 2020 for HIV Prevention among adolescents 15-19 and the current trends in new infections among girls and boys.

The following are the key challenges for national governments to accelerate and scale up HIV Prevention efforts and deliver at-scale HIV prevention programmes for adolescent and young priority populations:

1. Weak program design and delivery:
   • • Lack of granular age-sex and sub-national disaggregated data
     • Insufficient/ inefficient targeting of interventions at the right geographies and the right “at-risk” population segments and not reaching the most-in-need 10-24-year olds.
     • Generic intervention packages that do not cater to the needs of different segments of adolescent population, or reduce their HIV risk or address vulnerabilities
     • Provider-driven programs with poor engagement of adolescents, resulting in weak program design and ensuing low uptake of HIV prevention and treatment services by adolescents;
     • Patchy implementation projects that are not at-scale and not harmonized (across funding agencies) geographically or programmatically;
     • implementation of projects outside national systems, with limited programmatic sustainability;
     • Poor quality monitoring and poor implementation fidelity;
2. Inadequate investments in combination HIV prevention without a focus on long-term financial sustainability
3. Prohibitive laws and policies that hamper access of adolescents to HIV testing, prevention and treatment services

Global momentum and focus on HIV Prevention (Global Prevention Coalition, Three Frees framework and the StayFree Group, All In!, Inter Agency work on Key Populations and Young People, PERFAR DREAMS investments, Global Fund investments for Adolescent Girls and Young Women), emphasis on adolescent health and youth development including 21st century skilling and launch of several initiatives focussed on young people, offer numerous entry points for reaching adolescents. Explosive expansion of mobile and internet penetration and adolescents as digital natives and early movers in digital use present an excellent opportunity for agile and at-scale programming and transformative change in their lives.

Purpose

One of the key bottlenecks for national Governments to deliver at-scale HIV Prevention programmes is “insufficient/ inefficient targeting of interventions at the right geographies and the right “at-risk” population segments and not reaching the most-in-need 10-24-year olds”, as stated above. The proposed consultancy is to support the HIV Section to develop cutting-edge analytics for prioritizing geographies and locating population-segments 10-24 years at higher risk of HIV, integrating traditional and novel methodologies, data sources and tools. These cutting-edge/ advanced analytics will support sharper and evidence-based programming in three ways:

1. aid UNICEF to support national Governments across 25 countries to effectively target, tailor and scale HIV interventions for adolescents and young people (ayKP and AGYW) in the 10-24 age group, at higher risk of HIV.
2. support UNICEF’s global positioning and contribution to Fast Track Goals, UNAIDS’s new HIVE modelling, Three Frees framework and the Stayfree Group, Global Prevention Coalition and several Inter-Agency Groups on adolescents and young people as well as Key Populations.
3. potential application for population segmentation for broader Adolescent Health and Development programming, both within and outside UNICEF.

Scope

Geographical scope:

• The analytics will cover 25 priority countries with the highest burden of new HIV infections in the 10-24 age group. (Annex- 25 priority countries, described under the All In! initiative)

Thematic scope:

• The analytics will cut across a range of biological, behavioral, socio-cultural, economic and structural domains and factors (variously described as risk and vulnerability factors in literature, and used in this ToR under the umbrella term of ‘risk factors’) which operate at various levels (proximal, intermediate, distal levels, in time/ space) and have varying degrees of influence on HIV transmission in the 10-24 age group.
• The analytics will scan and review traditional/ existing, new and emerging methodologies, data sources and tools.

Objectives:

In the context of the HIV epidemic among 10-24 adolescents and young people in 25 countries

1. Review literature on a) risk and protective factors for HIV and b) methodologies, principal domains/ components, indicators/ indices, data sources and tools to determine risk and resilience to HIV
2. Develop a statistically robust, practical analytic-framework for prioritizing geographies and locating 10-24-year old priority population segments for HIV programming, complete with principal domains and weights, indicators, data sources, adapted for various epidemic typologies.
3. propose appropriate methodology and tools for measurement of HIV risk and protective factors, including agile digital collection methods and validate the methodology and tools different epidemic contexts.
4. Review and navigate a range of data sources across a final set of domains and indicators and generate analytics for all 25 countries.

Tasks & Expected results: (measurable results)

The consultant is expected to deliver the following key results, in collaboration with technical staff across numerous business units in UNICEF and consultation with other UN agencies/ partners.

Nature of supervision

The consultant will work under the supervision of the HIV/AIDS Specialist- Adolescents and the Statistics Specialist. The supervisor will have frequent interactions with the consultant at various stages to brief the consultant on the situation/ assignment; agree on the process and clarify the deliverables; provide feedback and comments on intermediary products; and track the progress made by the consultant. The supervisor will evaluate the consultant’s work and certify delivery of work.

Duty Station

The location of this assignment will be Remote, with occasional travel to UNICEF’s New York Headquarters and for partner meeting(s). Official travel might be required to one or two countries in Asia- Pacific region, East and Southern Africa region and West and Central African region to complete field work, as part of the validation of this product.  UNICEF will reimburse the consultant for out-of-pocket expenses associated with such travel by reimbursing the cost of the consultant’s ticket and paying an amount equivalent to the daily subsistence allowance that would be paid to staff members undertaking similar travel for official purposes.

Timeframe

Start date: 1 September 2018            
End date:   28 February 2019

Payments by UNICEF are delivery-based. Any deliverable not meeting the required specifications will be reworked and resubmitted at no additional cost to UNICEF. The proposed payment schedule for this assignment is monthly payment upon submission of progress reports on completed tasks, outlined against planned outputs. Based on the report and satisfactory performance, payments will be certified by the supervisor.

Key competences, technical background, and experience required

• An advanced university degree (Master's) in Statistics, Biostatistics, Economics, Econometrics, Epidemiology or other related degree
• Seven to ten (7 – 10) years’ experience in Estimation/ Modelling/ Risk and Vulnerability analysis for HIV/AIDS and/ or social development programs is essential
• Prior experience working with large scale datasets to analyse HIV risk and protective factors among adolescents and young people is essential.
• A native command of the English language is preferred
• Strong ability to multi-task and a drive for on-time delivery required.
• Fluency in English (written and verbal) is required.

Please indicate your ability, availability and daily/monthly rate (in US$) to undertake the terms of reference above (including travel and daily subsistence allowance, if applicable). Applications submitted without a daily/monthly rate will not be considered.

Remarks

With the exception of the US Citizens, G4 Visa and Green Card holders, should the selected candidate and his/her household members reside in the United States under a different visa, the consultant and his/her household members are required to change their visa status to G4, and the consultant’s household members (spouse) will require an Employment Authorization Card (EAD) to be able to work, even if he/she was authorized to work under the visa held prior to switching to G4.  

At the time the contract is awarded, the selected candidate must have in place current health insurance coverage.

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process.

UNICEF is committed to diversity and inclusion within its workforce, and encourages all candidates, irrespective of gender, nationality, religious and ethnic backgrounds, including persons living with disabilities, to apply to become a part of the organization.